912
FXUS64 KSJT 110512
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1212 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions will persist, with above normal temperatures
  into next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions Saturday and Sunday. Use
  caution with any outdoor burning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will keep above
normal temperatures and dry conditions around for the short term.
Light winds today will increase slightly for tomorrow afternoon.
Winds around 10 to 15 mph combined with dry fuels and relatively
low RHs (25% to 30%) will lead to elevated fire weather
conditions tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

By Sunday, the upper level ridge over the area tonight will be
weakening as the strong trough over the Pacific Northwest moves
into the western CONUS. This will put our area under southwesterly
flow aloft. This stronger southwesterly flow will have a couple
of effects. One is lee troughing along the eastern slopes of the
Rockies, which will tighten surface pressure gradients in the
southern plains, increasing south to southwesterly winds in our
area. These gusty winds, along with continued warm temperatures,
may cause elevated fire weather conditions for the Big Country
area Sunday afternoon. Second, the southwesterly flow aloft will
advect subtropical moisture in the mid and upper levels into the
area from the decaying tropical storm Raymond which is expected to
be moving north into northwestern Mexico at that time. With
shortwave energy interacting with this moisture, scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop west of our area, but
could affect portions of the Big Country Sunday night into Monday.
After that, upper level ridging will move back into the area,
keeping us dry through the end of the week, with continued warmer
than normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions and light winds are expected for the remainder of
the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     91  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  89  62  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    91  59  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   90  58  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  90  67  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       87  61  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       88  60  88  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41