705
FXUS64 KSJT 021809
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
109 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across southern
  potions of West Central Texas Saturday afternoon and evening.
  Locally heavy rainfall is the main concern.

- Showers and thunderstorms are also possible Sunday into Monday.
  Locally heavy rainfall is the main concern. A few strong to
  severe storms possible Sunday evening.

- Hot conditions expected to return for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

For Sunday, will have to watch for a complex of thunderstorms
complex that will likely develop to our northwest and move southeast
across mainly the Big Country during the late afternoon/evening
and then across, the Concho Valley and Heartland during the late
evening and early Monday morning and may make it down the I-10
corridor after midnight Monday. Also, an upper level disturbance
will help help keep these storms going well into Sunday night.
Most of the CAMs and global models are indicating this signal,
however areal coverage is a little different which each model. A
few storms may be strong to severe with the main hazards being
damaging winds and hail due to moderate to locally strong
instability, and strong downdrafts/outflow. The NBM is giving low
to medium chance Pops and the numbers at this time. Also,
localized flash flooding is possible. However, mainly outflow
dominated convection may help keep the rainfall rates down.

For late tonight and Sunday, a weakening convective complex might
bring scattered thunderstorms to the Big Country. These storms
may produce gusty winds and brief torrential rainfall and then
dissipate by late Sunday morning. Also, expect hot temperatures
Sunday with highs in the upper 90s to around 102. Please follow
heat safety precautions.

For this afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are possible across the I-10 corridor with an isolated storm as far
north to along a San Angelo to San Saba line. The main hazards will
be localized strong wind gusts, dangerous lightning and brief
torrential rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Rain chances will linger into Monday afternoon, however coverage and
intensity is expected to be less than that of the overnight
convection (discussed in the short term discussion). Surface
convergence along the stationary front and leftover boundaries from
the overnight convection will provide lift for scattered storms into
Monday evening. Rain chances will lower for the rest of the weak as
the upper level high shifts east towards Texas. Luckily, the high
looks to stay centered over New Mexico for much of next week,
keeping temperatures a bit lower than they otherwise could be.
However, temperatures will still get into the mid 90s to around 103
in the afternoons, with the warmest temperatures of the week
forecast for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Expect VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24 hours. The
Hi-Res models are indicating isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon along the I-10 corridor and going
with PROB30 for thunder 21-23Z at the KSOA/KJCT terminals. Also
for Sunday morning, scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly
east of the KABI terminal and will keep thunder out for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  98  71  94 /   0  20  40  10
San Angelo  72  99  71  97 /   0  10  30  10
Junction    71  98  73  96 /  10  10  20  20
Brownwood   72  95  71  92 /   0  10  30  20
Sweetwater  73 100  71  95 /   0  20  30  10
Ozona       71  98  72  98 /  20  10  10  10
Brady       72  95  72  92 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...21