853
FXUS64 KSJT 141118
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
618 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very strong winds expected today, along with blowing dust.

- Critical to extreme fire weather conditions expected today.
  Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will persist this
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

An upper-level low tracking north of the region today will be
closely followed by a developing and strengthening surface low
tracking just north of the Texas Panhandle this morning. The
tightening pressure gradient of the surface low, along with the
low-level jet mixing down from aloft today will result in very
strong and gusty winds across West Central Texas today. These
strong and gusty winds will help continue to dry out the already
critically dry conditions across West Central Texas today, and
therefore causing Critical to Extremely Critical Fire Weather
Conditions areawide today. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect
from 11 AM this morning through 9 PM this evening for the
critically dry and windy conditions.

There is also a High Wind Warning out for the Big Country, Concho
Valley, and Heartland from 7 AM to 7 PM today, for westerly winds
from 35 to 45 mph and gusts as high as 60 mph. These strong winds
may result in isolated power outages, loose and unsecured objects
blown around and difficult driving on north-south roadways,
especially for high profile vehicles. In addition to the winds
blowing dust is likely, which may result in low visibilities and
hazardous driving conditions. Farther south, winds will be a bit
weaker, but strong enough to warrant a Wind Advisory for the
Northwest Hill Country and Northern Edwards Plateau from 7 AM to 7
PM today as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Cooler temperatures are forecast on Saturday, with highs in the mid
60s to near 70. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and dewpoints in
the 20s will result in good radiational cooling conditions Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s
to lower 40s. Highs on Sunday will be near seasonal normals, in the
low to mid 70s. Warmer temperatures are forecast for the first part
of next week, with highs Monday and Tuesday in the 80s. Breezy
conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday as south winds increase
to 15 to 25 mph, with higher gusts.

The next upper level trough is forecast to rack across the the Great
Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This will send a cold
front south through West Central Texas Wednesday morning. Cooler
temperatures along with gusty northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, with
higher gusts, are expected on Wednesday behind the front. Highs will
be in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Good radiational cooling conditions
are again expected Thursday morning, with overnight lows in the mid
to upper 30s. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 60s to near 70,
with winds generally remaining light.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through the next
24 hours, with southerly winds continuing to increase through this
morning while shifting southwest to westerly by this afternoon.
The low level jet around 50 to 60 mph will begin to mix down to
the surface, increasing wind gusts by 08Z across all terminals.
Will likely see enough mixing down of these winds to also see
surface gusts between 40 to 50 knots at the central and northern
terminals today, before wind speeds really ramp up after sunrise
as the low level jet mixes down. Still looking at strong westerly
winds sustained at 25-40kts with gusts to 50kts at KABI, KBBD, and
KSJT today, with only slightly lighter speeds at KJCT and KSOA.
Blowing dust likely to restrict visibility at times as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...

Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are
expected later this morning through later this evening, with very
low RH percentages in the single digits to lower teens coinciding
with strong and gusty westerly winds. The extremely critical areas
are across the Big Country south to San Angelo, Ballinger and Cross
Plains where the winds are expected to be at their strongest today.
West Winds of 30 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph are expected to
develop mid morning today and continue into later this evening
before winds begin to diminish. West winds of 25 to 35 mph with
gusts to 50 mph are likely along the I-10 corridor eastward to
Brady, San Saba and Mason. Blowing dust will accompany high winds,
with the potential for visibilities less than 1 mile in the
afternoon and evening.

Critical fire weather conditions are possible again on Saturday,
as breezy westerly winds shift northwest later in the morning.
Cooler conditions with highs in the mid to upper 60s will mitigate
fire weather conditions slightly, but RH values will fall into the 15
to 20 percent range across West Central Texas. The strongest winds
Saturday will be along and south of an Ozona to San Angelo to
Brownwood line. Look for a possible Red Flag warning to be issued
Saturday as well. Elevated to critical conditions will continue
next week. The main concern is Tuesday as breezy southwest winds
combine with very warm temperatures in mid 80s to 90 degrees, and
RH values fall into the the 12 to 22 percent range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     74  50  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  74  49  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    80  49  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   76  47  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  71  47  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       74  48  66  44 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       77  52  70  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-McCulloch-Nolan-
Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom
Green.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-
Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-
San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Crockett-Kimble-
Mason-Menard-Schleicher-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...TP