775
FXUS64 KSJT 281106
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
606 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms could be strong to severe, mainly this afternoon and
  tonight and again Tuesday and Tuesday Night into Wednesday
  morning. Any storm could produce large hail, damaging winds and
  an isolated tornado.

- There is also potential for flash flooding for any areas that
  receive repeated rounds of rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

There is potential for severe weather late this afternoon into the
evening hours. Low level southerly flow will continue this
morning helping moistening the boundary layer a little more. An
upper level low centered over the Inter-Mountain West will help
swing a few weak disturbances northeast into Texas and combine
with a dryline and moderate to strong instability for isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms by late this afternoon across
mainly the Big Country and western Concho Valley. The Hi-Res
models indicate most the activity in this area and moving east
this evening. The combination of the instability and strong deep
layer shear leads to probably a few supercells to start with and
then merging into small clusters this evening. The main hazards
will be very large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado or
two. Again, the best potential for severe weather will be across
much of the Concho Valley and Big Country(SPC Day 1 Slight Risk
area) with a lower chance south and east across the reminder of
the area. The severe weather concerns will be more marginal and
isolated by late tonight. The rain chances are mainly low(20 to 40
percent) mainly tonight, with a localized threat of flash
flooding across the Big Country due to increasing PW values. Stay
alert to the latest weather information and have at least two
ways of getting warnings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

The pattern will remain active for the upcoming week as an upper-
level trough will be over the western US on Tuesday. Multiple small
shortwave perturbations will be ejected from the main trough in the
southwest flow across west Texas and into the central Plains. At the
surface a warm, moist airmass will remain in place across west
central Texas with dewpoints in the 60s.  The main focus for
convection on Tuesday afternoon and evening will be along and east
of the dryline. Large hail and locally damaging winds will be the
main concerns because of CAPE and shear values of 3000 J/kg and
40KT, respectively. The main trough axis should swing through the
state on Wednesday.  There will be medium to high chances for
thunderstorms in the morning before a drier airmass moves in for the
rest of the day.

Models show a brief lull in the active weather for Thursday with a
passage of a shortwave ridge and a dry, stable airmass.  By Friday
and into the weekend, models show a southward-moving cold front
could stall across the state. This would introduce chances for slow-
moving showers and thunderstorms, which could result in concerns for
heavy rain and potentially, flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Expect MVFR ceilings for a few hours at most of terminals this
morning. The low clouds will break up by late this morning and
then VFR for this afternoon and evening. The Hi-Res models are
indicating widely scattered thunderstorms developing just to our
west along a dryline during the late afternoon. The storms will
move east and have added PROB30 TSRA for the KABI/KSJT terminals
for a few hours this evening. The winds will be from the south
with a few gusts to 30 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     89  66  85  63 /  20  40  50  80
San Angelo  91  64  87  64 /  10  20  30  50
Junction    90  64  88  66 /  10  20  10  30
Brownwood   88  64  86  65 /  20  20  30  50
Sweetwater  89  66  84  61 /  20  40  60  80
Ozona       88  65  84  65 /  10  30  20  50
Brady       88  65  85  66 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...21