113
FXUS64 KSJT 202312
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
612 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
  afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall is possible.

- Low to medium (20-50%) rain chances Monday into the middle of
  next week. Cooler temperatures next week, but still slightly
  above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Isolated to showers and thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon across the Heartland and northwest Hill Country along
several remnant outflow boundaries. Additional showers and storms
will develop through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.
The main hazards with these storms will be localized downburst
winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Activity will
linger into the evening hours before dissipating. Most of the area
should remain dry overnight. Our area will lie under weak ridging
aloft on Monday. A weak frontal boundary will sag southward into
the Big Country and northern Concho Valley. With a moist airmass
in place along with multiple outflow boundaries and the surface
front, additional shower and thunderstorm development is expected
in the afternoon and evening. As with the storms today, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible given the high PWAT`s.
Temperatures will be cooler especially across the Big Country.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The upper level ridge will expand westward into our area for the
middle to later part of the week. Carrying a chance of PoPs on
Tuesday given the remnant surface boundary lingering and an upper
weakness aloft over the area. Will keep a low end chance of PoPs
going Wednesday through Friday mainly across our western counties.
By next weekend the upper ridge becomes centered over south Texas
resulting in mainly hot and dry conditions. Temperatures will be
cooler on Tuesday through Thursday- highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s- before warming back up int the mid 90s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

There are a few TSRA and SHRA near KJCT and KBBD as of this
writing. Expect these to dissipate and/or propagate southeast away
from our TAF sites in the next hour or sooner, so will not have
any mention of convection to start these TAFs. We are expecting
mainly VFR conditions at all sites outside of any showers or
thunderstorms. While there is a chance again tomorrow for storms
to affect area sites, confidence is not high enough in the amount
of coverage yet to introduce any PROB30 or TEMPO groups with TSRA
in them at this time. Otherwise, light south or southeasterly
winds expected overnight, with a shift to the east or
east/southeast by early afternoon as a boundary moves into the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  94  70  89 /  30  40  50  40
San Angelo  70  95  68  90 /  30  30  50  50
Junction    69  94  68  93 /  50  20  40  30
Brownwood   68  94  68  91 /  40  40  40  40
Sweetwater  72  94  68  88 /  20  30  50  60
Ozona       69  93  68  89 /  20  20  50  40
Brady       69  92  69  90 /  40  30  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...20