886
FXUS64 KSJT 171651
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1151 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot temperatures are expected today and Wednesday,
  but could trend a few degrees lower in the latter part of the
  week.

- There is a low chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night, mainly
  over the Big Country, which could produce damaging wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

High pressure aloft will remain across the area today as the
upper-level ridge begins to slowly shift back westward through
tonight. Hot and drier conditions are expected across the area
today, with generally clear skies and high temperatures in the mid
90s to as high as 103 degrees this afternoon. Winds will remain
breezy through late this afternoon, as the pressure gradient
continues to increase across the region. Winds will remain out of
the south generally from 10 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 35
mph. Winds will begin to decrease this evening, and overnight low
temperatures will fall back into the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A shortwave trough looks to pass through the country`s midsection on
Wednesday and allow for slightly cooler temperatures.  A surface
cold front should also dip southward into northwest Texas. A few
thunderstorms could develop along and/or south of this boundary in
the evening.  Overall coverage will be fairly sparse, but given CAPE
values of 2500-3000 J/kg and SRH of over 200 m2/s2 along the front
any storms that develop could produce some brief hail or gusty
downburst winds. For now, we`ll stick with 20-25 percent PoPs over
the Big Country where the best convergence will be located.

For Thursday and Friday, model consensus shows the upper ridge
shifting back over the southern Plains.  Both the ECMWF and the GFS
show a weak inverted trough moving out of the gulf through south
Texas and into the Big Bend region on Friday. Rain chances remain
low with this feature but a slight increase in cloud cover should
help to keep temperatures below 100 through Saturday.  A pattern
change looks to follow for the rest of the weekend as model
consensus shows a deep trough digging southward along the west coast
by Sunday.  Mid-level heights should start to lower and allow a few
disturbances to move into west Texas by early next week.  For now,
the forecast will carry near-zero rain chances but over the next few
days, PoPs could start to increase for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Expect windy conditions the next 24 hours with gusts to 30 knots
at times from the south this afternoon, decreasing a little to 25
knots tonight. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with only some
high clouds at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     99  76  97  74 /   0   0   0  20
San Angelo  99  75  98  72 /   0   0   0  10
Junction    96  72  97  71 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood   96  74  94  72 /   0   0   0  20
Sweetwater 102  75  98  73 /   0  10   0  20
Ozona       97  73  97  71 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       95  73  94  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...21