447
FXUS64 KSJT 192100
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
300 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch in Effect for this evening through Thursday Night.

- Rain chances begin today, peaking Thursday, before decreasing
  Friday. There`s a risk for excessive rainfall and flooding.

- There is a high chance (90%+) of at least 2 inches of rainfall
  across the Heartland and Hill Country by Thursday afternoon,
  with a small chance of at least 1 inch of rain (less than 30%)
  for areas from Abilene to San Angelo.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 101 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Obviously, heavy rainfall and flood potential is the main concern.

Incredible amounts of low level moisture for mid November, with
PWAT values nearing the 1.75 inch range (which would be in the
99th percentile for this time of year). Upper level low moving
into the southwest US with several shortwaves set to rotate
through the area. Right rear quadrant of a 90kt upper level jet
will be moving across the area as well. All this to say that this
system has all the ingredients for widespread showers and storms
across the area.

Most models are coming into line (other than some of the NAM and
its variants) in showing a band of heavy rainfall extending from
the western and northwestern Hill Country and Edwards Plateau,
from roughly along the Del Rio to Junction line, developing this
evening and continuing into Thursday. Appears to come out in 2
waves as shortwaves rotate through the area, with the first wave
this evening into the early morning hours, and the second arriving
during daylight hours on Thursday.

There remains some uncertainty with regards to extent and exact
amounts, but HREF probabilities are now showing a high chance
(90%+) of greater than 2 inches of rain over the next 24 hours
across the NW Hill Country around Junction, with point totals in
some models creeping above 8 inches in a few instances. Amounts
just to the south are even higher and are reaching 10+ inches
(and a reminder that the South LLano River flows north into Kimble
County from Kerr and Edwards Counties). Soils are dry but this is
the Hill Country where topsoil is shallow and runoff occurs very
quickly. That much rain in a short amount of time is going to
cause problems despite the recent dry conditions. Will continue
the Flood Watch in effect and push up the rain totals down there.

Across the rest of the area, forecasted precip totals have
decreased as the models have consolidated across the Hill Country.
Still appears that actual rain chances are high, but totals around
San Angelo and Abilene are now showing relatively low chances of
reaching 1 inch (up to 30%).

Not ignoring the risk of a few severe storms across the area
as well, although these will be driven by the impressive shear and
less by the instability. Widespread storm coverage likely to limit
severe storm coverage, but if a few storms can become more
isolated and tap into the limited instability better, than some
risk of marginal hail and even an isolated tornado can not be
ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

The bulk of the showers and thunderstorms will exit our area by
around 10PM although a few storms may linger across the northwest
Hill Country through midnight. Quiet weather will then prevail on
Friday ahead of our next storm system. By Saturday an upper level
low will be digging into Baja California and then push eastward
into southern New Mexico by Sunday. There is a low to medium
chance (20-40%) of scattered showers developing as early as
Saturday afternoon as large scale ascent increases, but rain
chances really ramp up in the late evening and into the overnight
hours. Multiple shortwave disturbances rounding the base of the
low combined with abundant low level moisture (PW values
increasing to 1.5+ inches) will lead to another round of heavy
showers and thunderstorms through most of the day on Sunday.
Probabilistic model data indicates at least medium to high chances
(50-70%) of most of our area picking up at least one inch of rain
from Saturday night through Sunday night, with around a 40-50%
chance of seeing at least 2 inches. Consequently, WPC has placed
most of our area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall in the
Day 5 Outlook. There is also at least some severe potential but
confidence is low at this time. Stay tuned as we get a better
handle on this system in the coming days. Rain chances linger into
Monday although the threat for heavy rainfall should shift off to
our east. Dry weather looks to return by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Mainly VFR conditions this afternoon will rapidly deteriorate this
evening and especially overnight into Thursday morning as showers
and storms become widespread across the area. Using the CAMs as a
first guess forecast on the timing of the start, and then using
prevailing storms for late tonight through Thursday morning. Some
possibility of more isolated activity sooner than projected but
given the uncertainty in timing and whether its near a terminal
location, will leave out for now. Will see MVFR for much of
tonight into Thursday, with pockets of both IFR and VFR at times.
Wind speeds will remain at mainly southerly at about 10 knots but
will vary around the storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     64  71  52  74 /  70  90  60   0
San Angelo  59  70  49  73 /  80  90  60   0
Junction    59  72  53  74 /  90  90  70  10
Brownwood   61  71  53  75 /  80 100  80  10
Sweetwater  63  70  50  72 /  80  90  40   0
Ozona       60  71  50  73 /  80  90  40   0
Brady       62  68  55  72 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 9 PM CST this evening through late Thursday
night for Brown-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...07