984
FXUS64 KSJT 191127
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
627 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Early this morning, low level stratus was beginning to build
northwest out of the Hill Country and into the area. The quasi-
center of Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 (PTC 1) is still well out in
the Gulf near the Bay of Campeche. Some of the heavier outer bands
of rain have started to work their way onto the Texas Coast as of
230 AM. These will continue to work their way west/northwest through
the day. Initial activity across our area will likely be confined to
the NW Hill Country where some isolated showers/storms will be
possible by the late morning/early afternoon. Hi-resolution guidance
is indicating that a more substantial band of rain will move in
during the late afternoon/evening period from the east/southeast.
This is expected to gradually move north and west through the
overnight hours. There has been some significant differences in
how far north this band extends so have kept PoPs pretty low for
areas along and north of the I-20 corridor. The heaviest PoPs have
been confined to after 00Z Thursday for the Northern Edwards
Plateau and NW Hill Country. Due to the tropical system being
shunted further south thanks to a southwestward expanding upper
ridge across the eastern CONUS, QPF amounts have come down
significantly over the past few days with most likely totals less
than or right around 0.5 inches for most of the area. If any place
is going to see higher totals, it will likely be along and south
of the I-10 corridor. Convective activity may lead to locally
higher totals but overall, this will likely not be the deluge we
hoped for earlier this week. With the cloud cover and rain
chances, highs will be on the cooler side, ranging from the low
80s across our southeastern counties to the low 90s further west.
Overnight lows will hold in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...Lingering tropical moisture through Thursday, then a drying
and warming trend from Friday into mid next week...

Potential Tropical Cyclone One, which will likely become Tropical
Storm Alberto today, and is forecast to track due west into
northern Mexico by Thursday morning. Given this more westerly
track, the bulk of heavier precipitation is expected to remain
confined to the south and southwestern portions of West Central
Texas for Thursday. As the system weakens and track further east
as a tropical depression Thursday night, precipitation chances
begin to diminish overnight into early Friday morning mainly
across the Northern Edwards Plateau. The increased cloud cover
will keep cooler temperatures across the area for Thursday, with
highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s
to low 70s.

Friday begins a warming and drying trend that will persist into
the middle of next week, with afternoon high temperatures on
Friday ranging in the mid 80s to mid 90s, then gradually
increasing to the mid 90s to near 102 by next Wednesday. Overnight
lows will remain fairly steady in the upper 60s to mid 70s through
the weekend, and then in the mid to upper 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR to MVFR ceilings currently present across the area. High-end
MVFR stratus continues to fill in across the area and is expected to
impact all sites this morning. Most sites, apart from KJCT and
potentially KBBD, should lift back to at least low-end VFR by late
morning/early afternoon. Winds have shifted to a more
east/southeasterly direction and are expected to back even more
to the east through the day. Gusts will pick up through the
morning and continue into this evening at about 20-27 kts.
Chances for showers and storms increase after 17Z but activity
should be isolated to scattered so have included VC groups for
all terminals besides KABI. A more persistent band of showers is
expected to move into the area during the evening and move
west/northwest through the overnight hours. Have updated timing
and locations based on latest hi-resolution guidance but further
adjustments will likely need to be made with the next package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     87  71  87  71 /  10  30  20  10
San Angelo  90  71  89  71 /  10  40  40  10
Junction    85  71  87  72 /  30  60  30  10
Brownwood   83  72  88  71 /  20  40  10  10
Sweetwater  89  70  87  71 /  10  30  30  10
Ozona       87  69  86  69 /  10  60  50  30
Brady       82  70  85  70 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...50