266
FXUS64 KSJT 031120
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
620 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...Isolated severe thunderstorms possible across portions of west
central Texas this afternoon and evening...
...Heat index values approaching Heat Advisory criteria across
portions of the northwest Hill Country and the Heartland this
afternoon...

A weak 500mb shortwave trough will move across northwest Texas this
afternoon. At the surface...the dryline will be just to the west of
the CWA. This will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms to
develop as the dryline moves into the western portions of the CWA
this afternoon into this evening. SPC currently has a marginal risk
of severe weather for today along and east of a line from Sweetwater
to west of San Angelo to midway between Sonora and Ozona. In
addition...there is a slight risk of severe weather across northeast
portions of the Big Country. The main severe weather hazards are
large hail and damaging winds but an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out. Also...there is a risk of two inch or larger size hail
across portions of Haskell and Throckmorton counties. Rain chances
will be slight across northeast and southeast portions of the CWA
this afternoon and evening but anything that develops will have the
potential to be severe.

Temperatures this afternoon will reach 100 degrees across western
portions of the CWA with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s across
the eastern portions. However...with dewpoints in the middle to
upper 70s across the eastern portions of the CWA this
afternoon...heat index values will approach Heat Advisory criteria
across portions of the northwest Hill Country and the Heartland this
afternoon. Have issued an SPS to highlight the potential for
excessive heat across those areas. If temperatures or heat index
values exceed 105 degrees this afternoon...a Heat Advisory will
likely be needed later today.
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...Above Normal Temperatures Expected This Week...

An upper level ridge will sit over the western U.S. (including our
area) through the long term, allowing for above normal and
potentially record breaking heat for this week. High temperature records
could be broken on Tuesday, with temperatures and heat index
values above 105 for much of our area south of the Big Country.
The current records for June 4th are 101 (set in 2013) for Abilene
and 107 (set in 1916) fro San Angelo. The forecast highs for the
4th are 103 and 106 respectively. As a surface low situates itself
to our west/southwest on Wednesday, winds will turn from the
west/southwest to the east/southeast. This will keep surface
temperatures cooler on Wednesday compared to Tuesday, due to the
lack of downsloping winds. However, with southeasterly winds comes
increased moisture and higher apparent temperatures. So even
though the actual temperature is forecast to be lower, the heat
index will likely be similar if not higher for some areas on
Wednesday and Thursday. It is worth noting that portions of West
Central Texas are forecast to reach the extreme threshold in both
WBGT and Heat risk for the afternoons of Tuesday through Thursday.
Heat advisories and possibly even an excessive heat warning might
be needed.

The ridge will help to suppress convective activity, but there are
still a few chances for rain. A few disturbances will move
through the flow aloft over the next week thanks to a shortwave
over the northern U.S. and an upper low to our southwest. The best
rain chances over the next week will be late this weekend and
early next week, but precipitation chances are still on the lower
end for now.
&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Satellite images indicate some low clouds across eastern portions
of the CWA early this morning as well as some high clouds moving
across most of west central Texas. Ceilings were near 1500ft at
KCOM to near 1900ft at KJCT. Expect MVFR to VFR conditions to
prevail across the area this morning before the low clouds lift
and burn off as diurnal heating allows mixing to increase after
15Z. The pressure gradient will increase across west central Texas
this afternoon with low pressure across the TX panhandle. The
dryline across west Texas will move into the western portions of
the CWA this afternoon. This will provide a focus for isolated
convection across eastern portions of the CWA this afternoon into
this evening.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     94  72 102  73 /  20   0   0   0
San Angelo 100  72 106  74 /  10  10   0   0
Junction    99  74 103  74 /  20  20  10  10
Brownwood   92  72  98  72 /  20  20   0  10
Sweetwater 100  72 103  72 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       98  72 103  74 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       92  74  99  72 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...61