052
FXUS64 KSJT 012321
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
521 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances are increasing for a line or broken line of showers and
  thunderstorms to develop from late Monday afternoon through
  Monday night, with the highest chances east of an Abilene to
  Big Lake line. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
  concerns.

- Drier weather for the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 115 PM CST Sun Nov
1 2026

Mild temperatures are forecast overnight with lows in the
low to mid 60s. These temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees above
seasonal normals. On Monday, a large upper level trough across the
western CONUS will track east toward the Great Plains. Ahead of this
feature, surface moisture will quickly increase with dewpoints well
into the 60s and even approaching 70 on Monday. Morning clouds will
give way to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon allowing
temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s. This will result in an
increasingly unstable environment ahead of a dryline that will be
located just west of the forecast area by late afternoon. A Pacific
front will approach our western counties late Monday afternoon or
early Monday evening, eventually overtaking the dryline. High
resolution models indicate isolated showers and thunderstorms
developing by early evening along the front/dryline, mainly across
our western counties. Eventually a line, or broken line of showers
and thunderstorms is forecast to track east across the area. The
highest rain chances will be across our southeast counties where
medium to high (70-90%) rain chances are forecast. Low to medium (15-
60%) rain chances are forecast elsewhere. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, with damaging wind being the main
concerns although some hail is possible. In addition, brief heavy
rainfall is possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 115 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast on Tuesday behind the
front, with highs near seasonal normals. Expect highs in the low to
mid 70s for most locations. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to
near 50. Near seasonal temperatures and dry conditions are forecast
Wednesday through Friday. Another weak cold front will track south
across the forecast area late Thursday into Friday morning. Highs
these days will be in the 70s, with overnight lows mainly in the mid
40s to lower 50s.

Models begin to diverge with respect to the synoptic pattern next
weekend. The GFS tracks a weak trough across the Southern Plains,
while the ECMWF indicates a much more potent trough and develops an
upper level low across northeast Mexico on Saturday. The ECMWF would
result in a wetter solution, while the GFS would result in a much
drier forecast. For now, PoPs were kept in the low to medium
category (20-30%), but these will likely need to be adjusted in the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Generally MVFR to VFR conditions will continue through this
evening, with a return of MVFR to IFR ceilings and some patchy
fog overnight tonight into Monday morning. Expect conditions to
begin improving to VFR and MVFR by late Monday morning into the
early afternoon hours. Some gusty southerly winds are expected
tonight into Monday morning, around 10 to 15 kts and gusts up to
25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     67  84  55  73 /   0  20  30   0
San Angelo  65  82  54  72 /   0  20  60   0
Junction    64  81  56  71 /   0   0  80  10
Brownwood   64  83  55  73 /   0  10  80   0
Sweetwater  65  83  54  72 /   0  10  10   0
Ozona       65  78  55  70 /   0  10  70   0
Brady       64  81  56  70 /   0   0  90  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...TP