140
FXUS64 KSJT 141111
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
611 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch has been extended for the Northern Edwards Plateau,
  Northwest Hill Country and Heartland through 8 PM Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...Flash flood watch has been extended through 8 PM this
evening...

A disturbance along the Rio Grande River Valley was moving slowly
north, with thunderstorms in Edwards county at 1 AM, potentially
moving into Sutton and Kimble counties in the next couple hours.
As the atmosphere remains very tropical-like, locally heavy
rainfall possible today over the I-10 corridor/NW Hill
country/Heartland.  The flash flood watch is been extended
through 8 PM tonight for this area.

Some storms may move into Concho Valley this afternoon, though
most coverage of showers and storms will be south. If it does
look like coverage will be more scattered, the flood watch may
need to be expanded, particularly to Tom Green county, where
severe flooding took place. Also, some models, mainly the NAM have
a weak upper low later tonight/Tuesday morning over the region.
This could extend flash flood problems into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A low pressure aloft will linger across southwest Texas leaving us
with weak flow aloft. This will provide enough support to see
continued chances (20-30%) for rain into Tuesday afternoon. With
slow storm motions and ample moisture across the area, we will still
be at risk of seeing excessive rainfall potentially leading to flash
flooding. This is especially true given the recent saturation of
soils across the region due to recent rainfall.

Then, we should see a period of drier weather develop for Wednesday
and Thursday onward. Expect high temperatures to reach into the
upper 80s to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Large area of showers and thunderstorms will move over KJCT this
morning, with occasional IFR visibilities in heavy rain/fog. This
will likely affect KBBD mid to late morning. KSJT and KSOA may
also see a few isolated showers/thunderstorms mainly this
afternoon which could produce brief MVFR ceilings/visibilites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     91  72  91  73 /  20  10  20  10
San Angelo  87  70  87  71 /  30  30  40  10
Junction    86  70  87  71 /  50  20  30  10
Brownwood   89  71  89  72 /  20  10  20  10
Sweetwater  92  72  91  72 /  20  10  20  10
Ozona       84  70  85  71 /  40  30  30  10
Brady       86  70  87  71 /  50  20  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for Brown-Crockett-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Schleicher-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...04