049
FXUS64 KSJT 280602
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
102 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday.

- Low to medium (15 to 30%) chance for isolated to scattered
  thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds are a
  concern.

- Medium to high (50-80%) chance for rain from Wednesday through
  Friday, along with cooler temperatures by the second half of
  this week. Heavy rainfall is the main concern with this event.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

West Central Texas will remain along the northern periphery of an
upper level ridge centered across northern Mexico. This will result
in a continuation of the above normal temperatures that we have seen
over the last several weeks. Highs today will be in the around 10
degrees above seasonal normals, in the mid to upper 90s for most
locations. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon and early evening, across southern portions
of the Big Country and then into the Heartland and Concho Valley.
The main concerns with any storms that develop will be gusty winds
and brief heavy rainfall. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Heavy rainfall potential still the main concern for West Central
Texas for Tuesday Night through at least Thursday. The question
really is where and how much and those answers are not a lot clearer
tonight than they were yesterday.

Ensembles from the various models continue to be clustered in 2
scenarios, one from the GFS and many of its members that tends to
have more of an open upper level trough that is a little farther
northeast, and the ensembles favored by the other global models that
forecast more of a slower, closed off upper low, that is a little
farther southwest. (Part of these difference is just how the
different models ingest and incorporate the remnants of Polo in the
initial upper trough.) The difference between these 2 setups in how
far east the dry slot spreads and thus where the heaviest band of
rainfall will develop. In either setup though, the eastern counties
including the Heartland and Hill Country see heavy rainfall. Its
really matter of whether the heavier rain sets up farther west and
includes Abilene, San Angelo, and more of the Big Country, Concho
Valley, and Edwards Plateau or if the dry slot shifts farther east
and limits the rainfall across the western half of the area.

As for totals, the average precip from the LREF continues to be
mainly in the 2-3 inch range for almost all of West Central Texas,
and the 90th percentile has crept up into the 4-5 inch across most
areas. Totals for the 95% percentile are in the 5-7 range with even
higher Max totals in some areas (10+). With some of the model PWATS
still near seasonal maxes, these higher numbers can not be completely
ruled out if the worst case situation ends up working out and the dry
slot does not shift across the area. Conversely, low end totals
reflect the possible dry slot and haven`t budged much off the
1/3 to 2/3 inch range either, so uncertainty remains abundant.
WPC has already placed much of the area in Moderate for Excessive
Rainfall for Day 3 and 4 and this seems completely reasonable for
now.

Just now starting to see some of the CAMs and high-res model data
get out that far (RRFS) and more will follow over the next 24 hours.
This will provide a little better look at any possible rainfall
totals and we can start to narrow down the possible QPF totals and
where the heaviest totals may be.

Otherwise, temperatures haven`t changed much and not going to argue
with the blends at this point. Well above normal temperatures  for
Tuesday, with much cooler conditions for late week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the next 24 hours.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening, mainly affecting KABI and KSJT. Included a
PROB30 group for thunder at these two sites. A thunderstorm cannot
be ruled out at the other 3 sites, but confidence is too low at this
time. Expect winds to generally remain below 12 knots through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     96  73  95  74 /  20  20   0  30
San Angelo  95  71  94  70 /  20  10   0  40
Junction    94  69  92  70 /  10   0   0  20
Brownwood   94  70  93  70 /  30  10   0  20
Sweetwater  96  72  94  72 /  10  10   0  50
Ozona       93  69  91  70 /  10   0   0  50
Brady       92  69  91  70 /  20  10   0  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...Daniels