444
FXUS64 KSJT 181845
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1245 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch in Effect for Wednesday evening through Thursday
  Night.

- Rain chances begin on Wednesday, peaking Thursday, before
  decreasing Friday. There`s a risk for excessive rainfall and
  flooding.

- There is a medium to high chance (70%-90%) of at least 1 inch of
  rainfall across much of West Central Texas, with a medium
  chance (50%-60%) of at least 2 inches of rain for areas
  southeast of a Brownwood to Brady to Sonora line.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

An upper low, currently over the California coast between San
Francisco and Los Angeles, will move slowly southeast to near the
southern border of California by Wednesday evening. Our area is
under southwest flow aloft, out ahead of this low. Low-level
moisture is making an appreciable return and dewpoints have climbed
into the lower to mid 60s across the southern two-thirds of our
area. With a continued influx of low-level moisture, widespread low
cloud development and northward expansion is expected over much of
our area overnight and Wednesday morning. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday, but this
should be primarily in the afternoon as an embedded disturbance
ahead of the main low and trough moves over eastern New Mexico and
adjacent West Texas. Toward evening, a few isolated strong storms
will be possible with a marginal threat for large hail. By that
time, destabilization will be combined with effective bulk shear
35-45 knots. Through Wednesday, temperatures will remain well-
above normal for this point in November. Lows tonight will be in
the upper 50s to lower 60s, and highs Wednesday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1241 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Heavy rainfall continues to be the main concern for the long term,
as 2 periods of showers and storms set to move across the area
into early next week.

Models coming into a little better focus for heavy rainfall
potential over at least the Northwest Hill Country, Heartland, and
Edwards Plateau. Upper level storm system set to move into the
Southwest US with a potent shortwave rotating across the area on
Thursday. Lift will be plentiful and showers and storms should be
widespread across most of West Central Texas. In addition, low
level moisture is much higher than normal for mid November, with
surface dewpoints in the 70s and some of the models forecasting
precipitable water values approaching 1.75 inches on Thursday.
This isn`t mid summer type of PWAT values, but still running near
the 99th percentile for this time of year.

CAM`s and the GFS have started to focus on an area of heavy
rainfall and storm training possible across the southeast
portions of the area for Wednesday Night and Thursday. The "most
likely" (50th percentile) rainfall numbers are running 2+ inches
across an area southeast of a Brownwood to Sonora line, with the
high-end amounts (90th percentile) in the 3-4 inch over that same
area. Some of the max totals are over 6 inches. This also matches
up with the latest Excessive Rainfall Outlooks from WPC. With all
that in mind, went ahead and issued a Flood Watch for the highest
risk area for Wednesday evening through Thursday Night.

Areas farther west into the Concho Valley and Big Country are not
out of the risk area, but there is a great deal more uncertainty
on whether the heaviest rainfall will end up that far west and
northwest. Have left these areas out of the Flood Watch for now
but will monitor closely and if the CAMs start dragging more of
the heavy rainfall farther west, will need to add some counties
into the Watch. San Angelo and Abilene are showing high chances
(70%) of at least 1 inch of rain, but relatively low chances for 2
inches (20-30%), so that is some indication of the uncertainty.

SPC also has much of the area in the marginal risk of severe.
Again, don`t normally see this amount of moisture and instability
across the area, so these storms have something to work with.
Still seems like storms may be widespread enough that severe risk
will be somewhat limited, but early on Wednesday evening into
Wednesday Night, storms may still be isolated enough that some
risk of severe hail is possible.

Finally, models still showing another round of storms Saturday
Night into Monday as yet another upper level storm system brings
another chance of some heavier rainfall totals. Right now,
heaviest rain looks to focus on roughly the same area that will
see the heavy rain in the first round. If thats true, than ground
will be saturated and runoff and flood threat would be even more
pronounced. This is day 5-day 7 at this point and a lot can change
between now and then. Will get through this first round before
worrying too much about the second round for now, but it is
something we will need to start messaging by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Low cloud cover has begun to break up, and ceilings are climbing
to 2500-3500 ft at our southern terminals at midday. Expect a
scattered to broken cloud field over the southern half of our area
this afternoon, with VFR ceilings at all of our TAF sites by
20-21Z. With ample low-level moisture return overnight and
Wednesday morning, expect widespread low cloud development and
northward expansion over much of our area. The northern edge of
the low cloud field should extend up into the southern Big
Country by 12Z Wednesday. Cloud ceilings will be initially MVFR,
but then lower into the IFR category. Also anticipate patchy mist
and have it included at all of our TAF sites south of KABI.
Numerical model guidance has some discrepancy on how low the
visibilities could be. At this time, have minimum visibilities 3-4
miles at our southern terminals. This can be assessed further with
subsequent model data. Isolated to widely scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday morning, but at this
point confidence is too low to include at our TAF sites. Wind
speeds will remain less than 10 knots, and primarily from the
south-southwest this afternoon and south tonight into Wednesday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     62  81  62  72 /  10  40  80  90
San Angelo  61  79  60  71 /  10  40  90 100
Junction    61  81  59  71 /   0  40  80  90
Brownwood   60  81  60  71 /   0  30  80  90
Sweetwater  62  79  61  71 /  10  50  80  90
Ozona       61  76  60  71 /  10  40  90  90
Brady       62  80  62  69 /  10  30  90  90

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night
for Brown-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...19