877
FXUS64 KSJT 171954
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
254 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot temperatures are expected today and Wednesday,
  but could trend a few degrees lower in the latter part of the
  week.

- There is a low chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night, mainly
  over the Big Country, which could produce damaging wind gusts.

- A dry forecast with temperatures near seasonal normals will
  prevail for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A typical early summer day across west central Texas with southerly
flow and temperatures in the lower 90s and somewhat muggy conditions
with dewpoints in the 60s across much of the area. Also, winds are
gusting to 30 to 35 mph mainly across the Big Country. A few places
might reach highs of 100 to 104 across the western Big Country and
northwest Concho Valley by late this afternoon.

For tonight, expect low southerly flow to continue with gusty
winds. A few showers/maybe a thunderstorm are possible across the
Big Country late tonight due to weak elevated instability. For
Wednesday, expect another hot and humid day with mostly sunny
skies and gusty winds from the south. Highs will be in the mid to
upper 90s. There is a marginal risk of severe weather across much
of the area tomorrow , but the convection will not arrive until
Wednesday night in our area, beyond the short term forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Still looking for the possibility of a few storms across mainly
the Big Country Wednesday evening, as the outflow boundary moving
south from the expected convection tonight meets up with a
dryline. A cap will remain in place at about 700 or 750 mb but
there may be enough convergence to overcome it. Some of the CAMs
show some convection developing near the triple point late in the
afternoon and shifting across the Big Country during the evening
and the model blends remain in the 20-30% range for POPs and not
going to argue this too much. Will continue the mention of slight
chance to low end chance POPs for the area north of I-20. Chances
farther south into the Concho Valley aren`t zero, but given the
slim odds will hold off and not add to the forecast quite yet. SPC
has a marginal risk for much of the area tomorrow, and if storms
can get going than there is a risk of it becoming severe. DCAPE
values would be up over 1000 indicating a damaging wind potential,
and CAPE values would be over 3000 J/kg so some risk of hail would
be there as well. Some of the model sounding analogs are 1 inch
hail so that makes sense.

After tomorrow night, a generally dry and warm forecast will
prevail. Upper level ridge across the southeast US is shown to be
a little closer to the area than the models yesterday at this time
were showing, so temperatures in the low to mid 90 into the
weekend (instead of the upper 80s to lower 90s we were mentioning
yesterday) are in store.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Expect windy conditions the next 24 hours with gusts to 30 knots
at times from the south this afternoon, decreasing a little to 25
knots tonight. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with only some
high clouds at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     76  96  74  95 /  10  10  20   0
San Angelo  74  98  72  96 /   0   0  10   0
Junction    72  96  71  95 /   0   0  10   0
Brownwood   74  94  72  93 /   0   0  20  10
Sweetwater  74  97  73  96 /  10  10  20   0
Ozona       72  97  71  94 /   0   0  10   0
Brady       74  94  71  93 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...21