044
FXUS64 KSJT 222351
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
651 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty hit and miss showers and storms possible south of a
  Brownwood to Sonora line this afternoon

- Drier and warmer for the upcoming weekend.

- Rain chances return to West Central Texas by the middle of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

The HRRR, NAMnest, and RAP all were depicting some isolated
thunderstorms across areas east of a Brownwood to Sonora line
this afternoon and evening. Satellite imagery also showed a decent
cumulus field across the region as well. As a result, it seemed
more likely that we will see more coverage than depicted by the
NBM guidance this afternoon. We went ahead and added some higher
rainfall chances (20-30%) into the forecast as a result. This
activity is expected to continue through the evening with some
locations seeing moderate rain, minor wind gusts, and lightning
with these thunderstorms. Mostly clear conditions will prevail
overnight with lows in the middle to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Models continue to show slight reprieve from showers and
thunderstorms across much of the area over the weekend, with some
chances remaining along the I-10 corridor through Monday morning.
High temperatures through this weekend and into Monday are
expected to remain in the 90s. By Tuesday, models continue to
trend towards a cold front tracking through the area Tuesday, and
bringing another round of wet and slightly cooler temperatures to
the area through Wednesday. High temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday will dip slightly into the mid 80s to lower 90s, with
more widespread chances for showers, thunderstorms, and potential
for localized heavy rainfall. By the later part of next week,
temperatures return to the low to mid 90s with more isolated
showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

An isolated TS may affect KJCT through sunset, otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Expect light winds through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     69  96  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  68  93  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    67  92  65  94 /  10  10   0  10
Brownwood   68  93  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  69  96  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       68  91  66  94 /   0  10   0  10
Brady       68  90  68  92 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...24