765
FXUS64 KSJT 170534
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot temperatures are expected today and Wednesday,
  but could trend a few degrees lower in the latter part of the
  week.

- There is a low chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night, mainly
  over the Big Country, which could produce damaging wind gusts.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Our area will remain on the eastern periphery of an upper level
ridge through Tuesday. The ridge is still forecast to begin shifting
to the west and to become re-centered over the Baja Peninsula
Tuesday. Skies will be generally clear tonight and Tuesday.
Tonight will be warm and humid with overnight lows in the lower to
mid 70s. With the 850mb thermal ridge expanding a bit eastward
into our area on Tuesday, temperatures will be a few degrees
hotter than today. Highs will be in the upper 90s to 102 in the
Big Country and Concho Valley. With lee surface trough development
to our west and an increased pressure gradient, expect increased
and gusty south winds from late morning through the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A shortwave trough looks to pass through the country`s midsection on
Wednesday and allow for slightly cooler temperatures.  A surface
cold front should also dip southward into northwest Texas. A few
thunderstorms could develop along and/or south of this boundary in
the evening.  Overall coverage will be fairly sparse, but given CAPE
values of 2500-3000 J/kg and SRH of over 200 m2/s2 along the front
any storms that develop could produce some brief hail or gusty
downburst winds. For now, we`ll stick with 20-25 percent PoPs over
the Big Country where the best convergence will be located.

For Thursday and Friday, model consensus shows the upper ridge
shifting back over the southern Plains.  Both the ECMWF and the GFS
show a weak inverted trough moving out of the gulf through south
Texas and into the Big Bend region on Friday. Rain chances remain
low with this feature but a slight increase in cloud cover should
help to keep temperatures below 100 through Saturday.  A pattern
change looks to follow for the rest of the weekend as model
consensus shows a deep trough digging southward along the west coast
by Sunday.  Mid-level heights should start to lower and allow a few
disturbances to move into west Texas by early next week.  For now,
the forecast will carry near-zero rain chances but over the next few
days, PoPs could start to increase for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. South winds
will increase throughout this morning and into the afternoon
hours, with gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     99  76  97  74 /   0   0   0  20
San Angelo  99  75  98  71 /   0   0   0  10
Junction    96  72  97  70 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood   96  74  94  72 /   0   0   0  20
Sweetwater 102  75  98  73 /   0  10   0  20
Ozona       97  73  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       95  73  94  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...TP