326
FXUS64 KSJT 301121
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
621 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers and storms possible this morning and
  again this afternoon and tonight. Potential for localized heavy
  rainfall and flooding.

- Locally heavy rainfall potential continues into Sunday, with the
  focus shifting south to the I-10 corridor and NW Hill Country
  Sunday afternoon and night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Ongoing convection across the higher terrain of eastern New
Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle this evening, has started
to progress east-southeastward toward West Central Texas this
morning. Models have this system tracking into the Big Country
around 3AM this morning, bringing the potential for heavy
rainfall across the area and dissipating by mid-morning. Showers
and thunderstorm coverage will increase this afternoon and evening
into Sunday, bringing more localized heavy rainfall to the area
which can lead to some localized flooding. In addition, the
stronger storms will be capable of producing some gusty winds and
although severe weather is not expected, isolated downbursts of
stronger winds will be possible. As for temperatures, expect highs
in the mid 80s to mid 90s, with the coolest conditions expected
across the Big Country. Lows for tonight will drop back into the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding potential will likely extend into
Sunday morning, as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will likely be ongoing across much of the country warning area. By
Sunday afternoon and night, the focus for showers and thunderstorms
will likely shift south along the I-10 corridor, as the cold front
moves along I-10 and south of the region. However, GFS Precipital
water values are still in the 2 inch range along I-10 and eastward
to Brady and Saba, so the atmosphere will still be tropical-like
behind the front, with the potential for heavy rainfall and flash
flooding.

Highest rain chances Monday will continue to be along the I-10
corridor, but the atmosphere will not be as moist, so heavy rainfall
potential is much lower.

Drier conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Thursday as few upper
disturbances moving through in northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected across all terminals this
morning prior to some lingering showers and thunderstorms moving
into the area from the northwest this morning, providing further
restrictions to visibilities. After a brief reprieve, showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon/evening
into Sunday, keeping MVFR ceilings and reduced visibilities in the
TAF package through overnight tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     92  71  85  69 /  60  80  80  30
San Angelo  96  69  85  67 /  50  60  80  50
Junction    97  71  91  69 /  40  30  80  70
Brownwood   92  71  85  68 /  50  60  90  40
Sweetwater  94  70  85  68 /  70  70  80  30
Ozona       96  70  88  69 /  30  30  80  70
Brady       93  71  84  69 /  50  50  90  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...TP