792
FXUS64 KSJT 161704
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1204 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and hot conditions will continue through the end of this
  week.

- Low to medium (20-50%) rain chances return late Sunday into
  early next week, with daily highs less hot but more likely
  staying above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Early this morning, skies were mostly clear across west central
Texas with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.  The
exception to this was smoke from a significant wildfire west of
Sonora drifting northward from western Sutton County into western
Schleicher county.  Otherwise, winds were from the southeast at 5 to
10 MPH.  At the upper-levels, a 598dam ridge was located over the
southeastern US while a trough was over the west coast, which places
west Texas in weak southwest flow aloft. At the surface a frontal
boundary was stalled over Kansas and the Texas Panhandle.  Over the
next 24 hours, the upper ridge will start to build westward into
Texas which should result in yet another day of unseasonably hot and
dry conditions.  High temperatures should be in the upper 90s to low
100s which is still over ten degrees above normal for this time of
year.  For reference, today`s daily records for Abilene and San
Angelo are 103 and 101, respectively, both set in 1965.  These
records will likely be tied or broken today. Southerly winds should
turn out of the southeast and increase to 10 to 20 MPH by noontime
with gusts over 25 this afternoon into early evening, following a
similar diurnal trend as the past two days. Overnight, winds should
diminish and low temperatures will be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S. will continue
to expand westward into our area from Thursday through the first
part of the weekend. The ridge will not be quite as strong as it
has been over the last week, but temperatures will still be well
above normal- in the mid 90s to near 101 degrees Thursday through
Saturday. A pattern shift then looks to commence late in the
weekend into early next week. An upper level trough is forecast to
deepen over the Rockies and then move eastward into the northern
and Central Plains. This may help to temporarily weaken the ridge
and send a frontal boundary into north Texas. Model blends
continue to advertise rain chances Sunday evening into Monday and
Tuesday, but there is still uncertainty regarding coverage and
amounts. Highs are forecast to be above average on Monday and
Tuesday -lower to mid 90s on Monday and lower 90s on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Generally VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours,
although some smoke could briefly affect visibilities near Sonora
today due to the ongoing fires in the area. Southerly to
southeasterly have started to increase early this afternoon with
gusts between 15 to 25 knots possible through this evening. Winds
are expected to diminish to light and variable this evening
through Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     76  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  72  99  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    71  98  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   73  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  75 100  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       71  96  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       72  96  70  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...TP