531
FXUS64 KSJT 181120
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
620 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Early this morning, radar was picking up on two small clusters of
showers and storms: one across the Trans Pecos west of Crockett
County and the other just east of Lubbock. Both of these clusters
are slowly moving east towards our area. Have added some PoPs for
far northern portions of the Big Country as well as the Western
Concho Valley and Crockett County through the early morning hours.
Hi-resolution guidance shows most of the cluster east of Lubbock
staying north of our area with the cluster further south gradually
dissipating after sunrise. Elsewhere, low clouds are starting to
stream northwest out of the Hill Country and will continue to
overspread the area through mid to late morning before they
mix/scatter out. Most places should see plenty of sunshine by this
afternoon. The gusty southeast winds will continue through today,
reinforcing low level moisture across the area. This continued
presence and even slight increase in moisture will keep highs a
couple degrees lower than yesterday with most places topping out in
the low to mid 90s. As usual, the western Concho Valley will be the
hot spot across the area with temperatures in the upper 90s. With
deep tropical moisture surging ahead of the tropical depression in
the gulf, there is a very slight chance for highly isolated showers
and storms, primarily across the Northwest Hill Country and
Heartland today. Most shower activity should stay to our south and
east and confidence is too low to increase PoPs to the mentionable
category for this forecast package but felt it was worth a mention
here. Low clouds will build back in overnight from the southeast
with lows holding in the lower 70s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...Heavy rainfall and possible flooding Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday night...

Models are continuing to show a tropical disturbance developing
over the Gulf of Mexico that carries the potential of becoming a
tropical depression/storm over the next 48 hours. Model guidance
has this system moving from the gulf coast into West Central Texas
from the southeast on Wednesday and pushing further west into
Thursday. This system poses the threat of bringing prolonged heavy
rainfall across portions of West Central Texas Wednesday and
Thursday, which can translate to potential flooding mainly south
of the I-20 corridor and more likely along the I-10 corridor. The
National Hurricane Center is currently carrying a 80 percent
chance in their Tropical Weather Outlook for development through
the next 48 hours over the southwestern Gulf. Showers and
thunderstorms that do develop with this system will be extremely
efficient given the high PWAT (Precipitable Water) values.
Rainfall in most areas will continue to be beneficial, but
extreme tropical rainfall rates could cause flash flooding. There
remains some uncertainty with regards to how models are handling
ridging aloft to our east, which can hinder some of the heavy
rainfall from pushing as far north as current models are showing.

By late Thursday night the system will exit the region to the
west, allowing upper-level ridging to build back across the area
and bring clear and dry conditions back into the forecast. High
temperatures are expected to gradually increase into the mid to
upper 90s by Monday and back into triple digit territory by next
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

MVFR to patchy VFR ceilings currently present across the area. Some
isolated showers have developed across the Big Country this morning
so have included a VCSH mention at KABI for a few hours. Have also
included some TEMPO VFR groupings at KABI, KJCT, and KBBD due to the
more patchy nature of the clouds across our eastern zones. All
clouds are expected to scatter out to VFR between 14-16Z this
morning. South to southeast winds are expected to remain gusty at
all sites (20-30 kts) through this evening, veering slightly more
to the east/southeast later today. Gusts should taper off
overnight with MVFR ceilings moving back into the area after 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     91  71  86  69 /  10   0  10  40
San Angelo  97  72  89  71 /   0   0  20  50
Junction    94  72  85  71 /   0   0  30  70
Brownwood   89  71  83  71 /   0   0  30  50
Sweetwater  94  71  89  69 /   0   0  10  40
Ozona       94  71  88  69 /  10   0  10  60
Brady       89  71  81  70 /   0   0  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...50