399
FXUS64 KSJT 300553
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1253 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday night.

- High chances (70%-100%) for rain for today through Friday,
  along with cooler temperatures by the second half of this week.
  Heavy rainfall is the main concern with this event and could
  result in significant flooding.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday. Below
  normal temperatures late week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Our models continue to show a heavy rain and significant flash
flooding event for today through tomorrow (Thursday) night. A
strengthening low pressure system is continuing to move east
across New Mexico and into western and northern Texas. This system
is colliding with the remnants of Hurricane Polo. Both of these
systems combined with a frontal boundary across our area will
provide more than enough support for widespread rain and
thunderstorm activity. Abundant moisture to include precipitable
water values in the 1.9" to 2.5" range supports efficient rain
production with this activity. Short range model depictions
continue to show multiple rounds of precipitation to include a
round of rainfall initially developing across the western portions
of our area. In fact, current radar imagery (as of 12:30 AM CDT)
shows light to moderate rain developing in Crockett County. This
activity is forecast to continue moving northeast across the
region through Wednesday morning. Then, a second round of
thunderstorms generally forms into a broad line and is expected
to move east during the afternoon and evening. Conditions appear
conducive to seeing flood related issues and strong to severe
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Large hail the
size of quarters (1" diameter) and damaging winds (60 MPH) are the
main two severe hazards. As the evening progresses and continues
on into the overnight hours, this line of thunderstorms will
develop heavier rain bands increasing the flood risk significantly
overnight. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are the most likely
observed amounts. However, locally heavier pockets of 8+ inches
remain possible. This type of activity will pose a Moderate Risk
(40-70% chance) of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding
through Thursday night. As a result, a Flood Watch will remain in
effect through late Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

After an active period of weather on Wednesday and Thursday, we will
see the strong low pressure systems exit our area by Friday.
However, we will still be under a weak trough through the weekend.
This will allow the heavier rain to subside and alleviate flood
concerns quite a bit but not completely. A Marginal Risk (5 to 15%
chance) for seeing excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding is
still in place for Friday. Medium chances (40-60%) for rain will
remain in the forecast, especially across areas east of a Abilene to
Sonora line. Additional rainfall amounts of around a half an inch
(0.50") are possible through Sunday. Then, long range models
redevelop a high pressure system across the southwestern U.S. for
early next week, which will leave us under its influence. Drier
conditions will result and highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

First batch of showers and storms taking shape across the Edwards
Plateau will move northeast and bring at least scattered
convection to KSJT and KABI later this morning and have thus added
a PROB30 for these terminals for a few hours. After that, may have
a bit of a lull before the main area of convection starts late
this afternoon and through the overnight hours. Used CAMs for a
first guess on timing later today for KABI and KSJT, but may not
arrive at the southeast and eastern terminals until after 06Z and
therefore did not include yet. Otherwise, expect some low clouds
to eventually fill in by sunrise across much of the area, before
lifting to a low end VFR ceiling for the afternoon. South to
southeast winds will continue and will continue to be gusty at
times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     91  69  87  66 /  80  90  40  20
San Angelo  93  66  87  63 /  50  90  40  20
Junction    94  68  84  64 /  20  90  90  50
Brownwood   93  68  83  65 /  50 100  80  40
Sweetwater  90  67  88  64 /  80  70  10  20
Ozona       90  66  86  63 /  60  90  30  10
Brady       92  67  81  64 /  30  90  90  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late Thursday night for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-
Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...07