592
FXUS64 KSJT 282324
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
624 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday.

- Low to medium (15 to 30%) chance for isolated to scattered
  thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds are a
  concern.

- High chances (70%-95%) for rain from Wednesday through Friday,
  along with cooler temperatures by the second half of this week.
  Heavy rainfall is the main concern with this event and could
  result in significant flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Expect isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and early this evening across much of the area this
afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be dangerous
lightning and gusty winds. Temperatures will be above normal for
this time of year, highs in the lower to mid 90s Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

A heavy rainfall and significant flash flooding event is looking
more likely mid to late week across much of the area, especially the
eastern 2/3 of the area. The remnants of Polo will get caught up in
a in a deeper upper level trough that will develop across the
Southern Plains later this week. Also, expect abundant tropical
moisture connection from the Pacific(PW values 2+ inches) along
with strong lift with favorable upper level jet streak dynamics
and a cold front in the area too. Looks like the main rounds of
convection will be Tuesday night through Thursday with medium
chances of 2 inches or more of rainfall with low to medium chances
of 4 to 6 inches mainly across the eastern half of the area. This
will result in possible significant flash flooding Tuesday night
through Thursday. There is a slight to moderate risk of excessive
rainfall across the area Tuesday through Thursday. Also, going
with medium- high chances of rain Wednesday afternoon and night.
Have issued an SPS for the upcoming event. Keep up with the latest
weather information. The rain chances will continue late this
week and the weekend with still a possible flood threat. The rain
and clouds will finally cool things off, highs in the upper 70s
and 80s.

In addition, there is a marginal to slight risk of severe weather
Wednesday across the area mainly during the afternoon and night.
The main hazards will be damaging winds and large hail along with
low chance tornado threat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected across our TAF sites through
tomorrow. South to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots through most of
tonight. Winds will pick up to 10 to 15 knots tomorrow by mid to
late morning, with a few gusts to around 20 knots at times. As
southeast flow increases, there is a chance for a few hours of
MVFR conditions at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD early Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  94  74  92 /  20   0  20  70
San Angelo  71  94  72  93 /  10   0  30  60
Junction    69  93  70  93 /   0   0  20  40
Brownwood   70  94  71  93 /  10   0  20  60
Sweetwater  73  93  73  90 /  10  10  40  80
Ozona       69  91  70  91 /   0   0  60  50
Brady       69  91  70  91 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...20