706
FXUS64 KSJT 281816
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
116 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hotter today with temperatures across the Big Country around the
  100 degree mark.

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible north of I-20 this evening
  as a cold front moves into the area.

- Rain chances will increase across the area Friday into the
  weekend, along with cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A cold front will move into the Big Country this evening. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along
the front, with most activity dissipating by mid to late evening.
Overnight lows will generally be in the low tom id 70s.

The aforementioned cold front will likely be located across our
central counties on Friday. The front may serve as the focus for
shower and thunderstorm development, especially during the
afternoon hours. Most CAMs are showing at least isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms along the boundary, with the
HRRR being the driest and the FV3 and RRFS showing the most
coverage. Given the uncertainty on coverage, kept PoPs in the
slight chance category at this time, but these may eventually need
to be adjusted up. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 80s to
low 90s across the Big Country, which will be behind the front, to
the mid to upper 90s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Friday night, main potential for showers and thunderstorms will be
across the Big Country. Best potential will be toward or after
midnight as an upper shortwave moves across in northwest flow. A
stationary front across the Big Country Friday night then pushes
south Saturday into the Concho Valley/Heartland providing a focus
for additional showers and thunderstorm development. Another
stronger upper short wave then moves through Saturday night, with
additional showers and thunderstorms into Sunday. Sunday night into
Monday , the front moves south of the region, with the focus of
storms along/south of I-10.

Main hazard with the storms will be heavy rainfall and potential
flooding, particularly Saturday night into Sunday. There is still a
high level of uncertainly with rainfall amounts. However, general
rainfall amounts 1 to 2.5 inches through the weekend, with higher
amounts possible. The higher amounts look focused over the Big
Country/Northern Heartland, but 1 to 2 inches possible from the
Concho Valley to Brady, San Saba. The I-10 corridor is generally in
the 1/2 to 1 inch range.

Some scattered showers and thunderstorms remain Monday and Tuesday,
with main focus in southern sections. Drier air moves in midweek
behind the front the first have of the week, but a chance of showers
returns late Wednesday night into Thursday. At this time, it appears
rainfall amounts will be light Tuesday on.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Expect generally VFR conditions to prevail through the next 24
hours. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible at KABI this evening as a cold front approaches. Any
thunderstorms may result in reduced visibilities due to heavy
rainfall. Gusty south to southwest winds this morning and early
afternoon should steadily decrease late this afternoon into this
evening. Patchy stratus is possible behind the front, but should
remain north of KABI overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  93  71  89 /  20  20  20  60
San Angelo  73  97  71  94 /  10  20  20  60
Junction    71  98  71  96 /   0  20  10  50
Brownwood   73  95  71  90 /  10  30  20  60
Sweetwater  72  94  71  90 /  20  20  20  60
Ozona       72  97  72  95 /   0  20  10  40
Brady       74  94  73  91 /  10  30  20  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...Daniels