655
FXUS64 KSJT 022335
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
535 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms, some potentially severe, are expected
  to develop from late this afternoon into the early morning hours
  on Tuesday, with the highest chances east of an Abilene to San Angelo
  line. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns.

- Drier weather for the rest of the week with no significant
  weather impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

CAMs continue to show convective chances across West Central Texas
through this evening and into the early morning hours. A few
storms may develop as early as late this afternoon along a
dryline, mainly north of I-20 across the Big Country. The cold
front will eventually overtake the cold front and surge south
across the remainder of West Central Texas after midnight. best
chance of severe will be this afternoon and evening across the Big
Country where better instability will be. Severe storm chances
probably decrease some as the front overtakes the dryline farther
south. This is both at a time where instability is more limited
and as the surging cold front tries to undercut some of the
convection. Overall, best rain chances will be east of an Abilene
to San Angelo to Ozona line.

Cold front will clear West Central Texas by sunrise, leaving dry
and cooler conditions for Tuesday. Highs mainly in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A bit of an unsettled pattern for the end of the week, as a series
of weaker shortwaves move very quickly north of the area across
the plains. Getting any moisture back ahead of these system back
is going to be tough and the model blends are largely dry. A
little bit of a stronger upper trough moves north of the area for
the weekend and the blends do show at lease some light showers
across portions of the area. Bigger upper level ridge follows it
for early next week. As for temperatures, Generally a cooler and
drier air mass will remain across the area with no really cold air
on the way. Lows in the 50s, and then 40s. Highs mainly in the 70s
cooling into the 60s for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A broken line or lines of thunderstorms will move east across the
area this evening and tonight, and should move out of our far
southeastern counties around 3 AM to 4 am. Carrying Prob30 groups
at our TAF sites to cover the time frames when storms could move
through. Strong, gusty winds are possible on the leading edge of
any lines of storms, and reductions in ceiling and visibility are
possible in locally heavy rain accompanying the convection.
South-southwest winds initially this evening will shift to the
northwest late tonight with passage of a cold front. North-
northwest winds 10-15 knots are expected Tuesday morning with
higher gusts possible. North-northwest winds will diminish by
Tuesday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     55  71  49  74 /  60   0   0   0
San Angelo  54  70  46  73 /  60   0   0   0
Junction    56  71  44  74 /  90   0   0   0
Brownwood   55  71  46  73 /  90   0   0   0
Sweetwater  53  69  49  72 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       54  70  47  71 /  50   0   0   0
Brady       56  70  48  72 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...19