592
FXUS64 KSJT 141839
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
139 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch has been extended for the Northern Edwards Plateau,
  Northwest Hill Country and Heartland through 8 PM Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...Flash flood watch has been extended through 8 PM this
evening...

A disturbance along the Rio Grande River Valley was moving slowly
north, with thunderstorms in Edwards county at 1 AM, potentially
moving into Sutton and Kimble counties in the next couple hours.
As the atmosphere remains very tropical-like, locally heavy
rainfall possible today over the I-10 corridor/NW Hill
country/Heartland.  The flash flood watch is been extended
through 8 PM tonight for this area.

Some storms may move into Concho Valley this afternoon, though
most coverage of showers and storms will be south. If it does
look like coverage will be more scattered, the flood watch may
need to be expanded, particularly to Tom Green county, where
severe flooding took place. Also, some models, mainly the NAM have
a weak upper low later tonight/Tuesday morning over the region.
This could extend flash flood problems into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The global models are indicating pretty much an end to the unsettled
pattern and more of an upper level ridge over our area through
this weekend. As a result, expect warmer temperatures and mainly dry
weather. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Wednesday,
warming into the mid to upper 90s Big Country and northwest Concho
Valley to lower to mid 90s elsewhere this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

An area of rain is shifting north across some of our southern and
southeastern counties at 1230 PM. This is affecting KJCT and to
some extent KSOA. Carrying TEMPO groups for MVFR conditions
(mainly with visibilities) through mid-afternoon at these TAF
sites. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible but low confidence in placement precludes a mention
at this time. But will monitor radar trends and update as needed.
Some low cloud development is expected late tonight and early
Tuesday morning over the southern and southeastern parts of our
area, with MVFR ceilings. Have accounted for this at our southern
terminals, and carrying a scattered mention at KSJT and KBBD which
could be near the northern edge of the low cloud field. Our area
has some variability in winds this afternoon, but expecting
generally southeast to south winds tonight into Tuesday. Expecting
wind speeds will be a little higher (9-11 knots) by late Tuesday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  89  73  92 /  10  20  10  10
San Angelo  70  86  72  90 /  20  20  10  10
Junction    70  86  72  89 /  30  30  10  10
Brownwood   71  88  72  89 /  20  30  10  10
Sweetwater  70  89  72  93 /  10  20  10  10
Ozona       69  84  71  88 /  30  20  10  10
Brady       70  86  71  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Crockett-
Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Schleicher-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...19