851
FXUS64 KSJT 152307
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
607 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and hot conditions will continue through the end of this
  week.

- Low to medium (20-50%) rain chances return Sunday into early
  next week, with daily highs less hot but more likely staying
  above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Our dominant weather influence is from a large and strong upper
level high centered over the Southeast. This is resulting in well-
above normal temperatures for this point in September. With
generally clear skies, lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s,
and highs Wednesday will be mostly in the upper 90s in our southern
counties, and upper 90s to 102 degrees for central and northern
parts of our area. South winds will continue, but wind speeds will
be less tomorrow compared to today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The ridge aloft will take on a northeast-southwest orientation and
shift to the west Thursday into Saturday. The ridge will be centered
over Arkansas on Thursday, the ArkLaTex on Friday, and the ArkLaTex
and eastern Texas on Saturday. Hot and dry conditions will persist
Thursday into Saturday. This ridge will not be quite as strong late
this week. Our temperatures will be a little less hot but still well-
above normal. Expect highs in the mid to upper 90s for our southern
counties, and 96-100 degrees across the central and northern
counties.

Changes in the pattern are indicated over the weekend and early next
week. An upper trough is forecast to move east across the Rockies
Saturday night and early Sunday, and across the Great Plains Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night. This will weaken the aforementioned
ridge. Far western and northwestern parts of our area will have a
low chance (15-20 percent) of showers and thunderstorms Saturday
night. A mostly low chance (20-30 percent) of showers and storms
will expand across the northwest half of our area Sunday. Expect
highs Sunday to be generally in the mid to upper 90s.

Medium range models have either a weak ridge or weakness aloft over
our area early next week. A weak cold front may sag south of the Red
River and into our northern counties on Monday. With precipitable
water values progged to be at or above 1.5 inches across some of our
area, showers and thunderstorms will be possible but there is
uncertainty in coverage and rain chances. Blended models at this
time have medium rain chances (30-50 percent) Monday, and low to
medium (20-40 percent) chances Monday night and Tuesday.
Temperatures (how hot) also look uncertain with the latest model
trends a little higher for highs Monday and Tuesday (in the lower to
mid 90s). Now looking like the better chance of having highs below
90 would be in the Big Country north of where the front can make
southward progress.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions will generally prevail across West Central Texas
terminals through Wednesday afternoon. Exception may be at KSOA
(Sonora) where a nearby wildfire may allow smoke to drift across
the airport at some point. However, prevailing south to southeast
winds likely to make this a short-lived occurrence if it develops.
Otherwise, gusty south to southeast winds will continue to
prevail. Gusts near or above 20kts possible during daylight
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     75 101  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  72 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    69  99  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   72 100  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  75 101  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       70  96  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       70  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07