032
FXUS64 KSJT 030449
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1049 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms, some potentially severe, are expected
  to develop from late this afternoon into the early morning hours
  on Tuesday, with the highest chances east of an Abilene to San Angelo
  line. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns.

- Drier weather for the rest of the week with no significant
  weather impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

CAMs continue to show convective chances across West Central Texas
through this evening and into the early morning hours. A few
storms may develop as early as late this afternoon along a
dryline, mainly north of I-20 across the Big Country. The cold
front will eventually overtake the cold front and surge south
across the remainder of West Central Texas after midnight. best
chance of severe will be this afternoon and evening across the Big
Country where better instability will be. Severe storm chances
probably decrease some as the front overtakes the dryline farther
south. This is both at a time where instability is more limited
and as the surging cold front tries to undercut some of the
convection. Overall, best rain chances will be east of an Abilene
to San Angelo to Ozona line.

Cold front will clear West Central Texas by sunrise, leaving dry
and cooler conditions for Tuesday. Highs mainly in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A bit of an unsettled pattern for the end of the week, as a series
of weaker shortwaves move very quickly north of the area across
the plains. Getting any moisture back ahead of these system back
is going to be tough and the model blends are largely dry. A
little bit of a stronger upper trough moves north of the area for
the weekend and the blends do show at lease some light showers
across portions of the area. Bigger upper level ridge follows it
for early next week. As for temperatures, Generally a cooler and
drier air mass will remain across the area with no really cold air
on the way. Lows in the 50s, and then 40s. Highs mainly in the 70s
cooling into the 60s for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A band of showers and thunderstorms moving east across the
southeastern part of our area will exit the area after Midnight.
Only the KJCT site should have lingering -TSRA at the 06Z TAF
initialization time. Skies will be clearing overnight with winds
shifting to the northwest. From mid-morning Tuesday into the
afternoon, north-northwest winds 10-15 knots are expected with
gusts 19-23 knots. North-northwest winds will diminish by Tuesday
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     84  55  71  50 /  20  50   0   0
San Angelo  82  54  71  47 /  20  50   0   0
Junction    82  56  72  46 /   0  80   0   0
Brownwood   84  55  72  47 /  10  70   0   0
Sweetwater  84  53  69  50 /  30  10   0   0
Ozona       79  54  71  48 /   0  50   0   0
Brady       82  56  70  49 /   0  70   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...19