732
FXUS64 KSJT 201712
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1112 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch remains in effect through tonight.

- Rain chances continue through tonight, before decreasing
  Friday. There`s a risk for excessive rainfall and flooding.

- There is a high chance (90%+) of at least 2 inches of rainfall
  across the Heartland and Hill Country by this afternoon, with a
  small chance of at least 1 inch of rain (less than 30%) for
  areas from Abilene to San Angelo.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through tonight)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist through
tonight, with the primary impacts being potential flooding due to
heavy rainfall, strong outflow winds, dangerous lightning, and a
small chance for large hail. Copious amounts of low-level moisture
remain across the area, with PWAT (Precipitable Water) values
nearing the 1.75 inch range which is well above average for this
time of year. Models continue to show areas of heavy rainfall
across portions of the northwestern Hill Country, Edwards Plateau,
and southern portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland, as a
series of shortwave disturbances track across the area. With the
heavy rainfall we are seeing overnight and models are indicating
we should see through the rest of the day today, the Flood Watch
will remain in effect through tonight.

There remains some uncertainty with regards to extent and exact
amounts, but HREF probabilities are now showing a high chance
(90%+) of greater than 2 inches of rain over the next 24 hours
across the NW Hill Country around Junction, with point totals in
some models creeping above 8 inches in a few instances. Amounts
just to the south are even higher and are reaching 10+ inches (and
a reminder that the South LLano River flows north into Kimble
County from Kerr and Edwards Counties). Soils are dry but this is
the Hill Country where topsoil is shallow and runoff occurs very
quickly. That much rain in a short amount of time could cause
problems despite the recent dry conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1206 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Quieter weather is expected Friday into Saturday as the system
bringing the current precipitation moves off to the northeast and
we fall under southwest flow aloft. Highs will generally range
from the upper 60s to lower 70s, with light west winds on Friday
becoming east to southeasterly Saturday in response to surface
pressure falls to our west.

By Saturday, the next upper level system is expected to be over
the northern Baja Peninsula while beginning to turn to the
northeast into the Desert Southwest. Surface pressure falls to our
west in response to the approach of the upper system will quickly
draw low level Gulf moisture back into the area Saturday into
Sunday. And while we could see a few showers and isolated storms
Saturday afternoon south of Interstate 20, shortwave ridging over
west central Texas will likely limit coverage of any
precipitation.

On Sunday, the upper level low will move into the Four Corners
region. Similar to the current system, shortwaves rotating around
the low in combination with height falls aloft will increase lift
Sunday into Sunday night. At the surface, a Pacific cold front
will move into the area providing a focus for convection as well.
All this points to increasing confidence in another round of
showers and thunderstorms for west central Texas Sunday into
Sunday night. The main concern will again be locally heavy
rainfall and flooding, especially after the current event drops
and inch-plus of rainfall over most of the area through tomorrow
night. As mentioned in the previous AFD, there is a Marginal to
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for our region. Similar to this
event, severe storms are also a concern, but secondary to heavy
rain at this time. Most of the precipitation will be out of the
area by early Monday afternoon.

Expect dry weather, mostly clear skies, and cooler temperatures
through the Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon and
evening hours before tapering off tonight. IFR/MVFR conditions
will likely be likely with any storms that directly impact the
terminals. Otherwise, patchy low clouds and mist will continue
today and continue into the early morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     53  74  45  70 /  40   0   0  10
San Angelo  50  74  43  70 /  30   0   0  20
Junction    54  75  47  72 /  50  20  10  20
Brownwood   53  75  44  71 /  60  10   0  10
Sweetwater  50  72  46  68 /  40   0   0  10
Ozona       51  74  46  71 /  30   0   0  30
Brady       55  72  48  70 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for Brown-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...42