042
FXUS64 KSJT 150646
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
146 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch has been extended until 1 PM CDT for the Northern
  Edwards Plateau, Northwest Hill Country, and Heartland. Also
  expanded watch to include Tom Green and Concho counties.

- A more settled pattern with a warming trend in temperatures is
  expected later this week into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Recent model runs of the HRRR and other short range models continue
to show heavy rain and thunderstorms moving across the I-10 corridor
this morning. Rainfall totals near 1-2" seem possible along with
locally higher amounts near 3". In fact, some of the more recent
model runs continue to show this activity further north into the
Concho Valley. This is further north than previously thought. Given
recent rainfall across these areas, flash flooding seems likely as
this activity moves through. We will remain under a Moderate to
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding. As a
result, the Flood Watch has been extended northward to now include
Tom Green and Concho Counties as well. We have also extended the
watch until 1 PM CDT.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Recent model runs of the HRRR and other short range models
continue to show potentially heavy rain and thunderstorms moving
into the I-10 corridor early this morning. Recent radar imagery
shows scattered thunderstorms developing along a disturbance
located over northern Mexico and areas near Del Rio and Edwards
County. Rainfall totals near 1-2" seem possible along with locally
higher amounts near 3". Models continue to show the bulk of this
activity moving north into the I-10 corridor by around 2-4 AM CDT.
Given recent rainfall across this area, flash flooding seems
likely as this activity moves through. We will remain under a
Moderate to Slight Risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash
flooding until 7 AM CDT. As a result, the Flood Watch has been
extended until then.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Complex of showers and thunderstorms from Del Rio area was moving
north into the I-10 corridor and Concho Valley at 6Z. Latest CAMS
weaken the complex by 7 AM this morning, but previous models
continued the storms this morning and into the afternoon. Thus
extended the Flood watch to 18Z. Also, expanded watch to include
Tom Green and Concho counties as soils are saturated there, and
even an inch of rainfall would bring a return of flooding.

Shower and thunderstorm activity end quickly early this evening.
Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Both the ECMWF and the GFS are indicating an end to the unsettled
pattern across the region. High pressure builds aloft by the end of
the week into the weekend. As a result, highs will warm into the
middle to upper 90s. Much drier conditions will remain in place as
this high pressure sets in.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Showers and thunderstorms moving into the KSOA and KJCT will
spread north tonight over KSJT and KBBD. MVFR ceilings and
MVFR/IFR visibilities in heavy rain developing tonight. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will likely weaken after 12Z. Ceilings
should rise to VFR toward noon. KABI should remain VFR, but could
be affected by isolated showers and thunderstorm this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     90  73  92  73 /  20  10  10   0
San Angelo  86  72  90  71 /  50  10  10   0
Junction    86  72  89  69 /  50  10  10   0
Brownwood   89  72  90  71 /  30  10   0   0
Sweetwater  91  72  93  73 /  30  10   0   0
Ozona       83  71  88  70 /  40  10   0   0
Brady       86  72  88  70 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Brown-Concho-
Crockett-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Schleicher-
Sutton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...04