561
FXUS64 KSJT 141759 AAB
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1259 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch has been extended for the Northern Edwards Plateau,
  Northwest Hill Country and Heartland through 8 PM Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...Flash flood watch has been extended through 8 PM this
evening...

A disturbance along the Rio Grande River Valley was moving slowly
north, with thunderstorms in Edwards county at 1 AM, potentially
moving into Sutton and Kimble counties in the next couple hours.
As the atmosphere remains very tropical-like, locally heavy
rainfall possible today over the I-10 corridor/NW Hill
country/Heartland.  The flash flood watch is been extended
through 8 PM tonight for this area.

Some storms may move into Concho Valley this afternoon, though
most coverage of showers and storms will be south. If it does
look like coverage will be more scattered, the flood watch may
need to be expanded, particularly to Tom Green county, where
severe flooding took place. Also, some models, mainly the NAM have
a weak upper low later tonight/Tuesday morning over the region.
This could extend flash flood problems into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A low pressure aloft will linger across southwest Texas leaving us
with weak flow aloft. This will provide enough support to see
continued chances (20-30%) for rain into Tuesday afternoon. With
slow storm motions and ample moisture across the area, we will still
be at risk of seeing excessive rainfall potentially leading to flash
flooding. This is especially true given the recent saturation of
soils across the region due to recent rainfall.

Then, we should see a period of drier weather develop for Wednesday
and Thursday onward. Expect high temperatures to reach into the
upper 80s to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

An area of rain is shifting north across some of our southern and
southeastern counties at 1230 PM. This is affecting KJCT and to
some extent KSOA. Carrying TEMPO groups for MVFR conditions
(mainly with visibilities) through mid-afternoon at these TAF
sites. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible but low confidence in placement precludes a mention
at this time. But will monitor radar trends and update as needed.
Some low cloud development is expected late tonight and early
Tuesday morning over the southern and southeastern parts of our
area, with MVFR ceilings. Have accounted for this at our southern
terminals, and carrying a scattered mention at KSJT and KBBD which
could be near the northern edge of the low cloud field. Our area
has some variability in winds this afternoon, but expecting
generally southeast to south winds tonight into Tuesday. Expecting
wind speeds will be a little higher (9-11 knots) by late Tuesday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     91  72  89  73 /  10  10  20  10
San Angelo  87  70  86  72 /  30  20  20  10
Junction    86  70  86  72 /  70  30  30  10
Brownwood   89  71  88  72 /  30  20  30  10
Sweetwater  92  70  89  72 /  10  10  20  10
Ozona       84  69  84  71 /  40  30  30  10
Brady       86  70  86  71 /  50  20  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Crockett-
Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Schleicher-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...19