067
FXUS64 KSJT 210805
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
305 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
  afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, along
  with brief gusty winds.

- Low to medium (20-50%) rain chances Tuesday. Slightly cooler but
  still above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, with hotter and well-
  above normal temperatures again by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

One more day of temperatures in the mid and upper 90s today,
before slightly cooler temperatures arrive on Tuesday. West
Central Texas will remain under weak ridging aloft today.
However, a weak cold front will approach from the north today
and will sag southward into the Big Country and northern Concho
Valley this afternoon and early evening. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop along and behind this boundary by late
afternoon and persist into the evening hours. Will maintain
20-40% rain chances this afternoon and evening, with low rain
chances for the overnight hours. While severe weather is not
expected, the stronger storms could produce some gusty winds. In
addition, given high PWAT`s (precipitable water), heavy rainfall
is also possible, which may result in some minor flooding of low
lying and poor drainage areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A weak upper level ridge will be over south-central and southeast
Texas Tuesday. With lower heights over our area and moist air,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday. The ridge will strengthen some over southeast Texas
Wednesday and Thursday, and then shift back to the west over Deep
South Texas by next weekend. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday
will be slightly cooler but still above normal (highs mostly in
the lower 90s). Expect a trend toward hotter temperatures again by
the weekend with highs in the lower and mid 90s. While the
possibility of an isolated shower/thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out, overall rain chances dwindle for our area in the mid-to-late
week time frame and into the weekend. Medium range models have
increased differences in the upper level pattern and surface
features Sunday into the first part of next week and this has
implications on rain chances and temperatures. For this part of
the forecast, relying more on the model blends.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail the next 24 hours. The main
concern will be convective potential again later this afternoon
and evening. Convection is expected to develop northwest of the
area tomorrow afternoon and propagate southeast. Highest
confidence for convection is at KABI and will include a PROB30
group this forecast cycle into the evening hours. Model show
activity weakening as it continues south Monday evening, so will
hold off mentioning thunder across the southern terminals and re-
evaluate for the 12Z package. Expect light winds through the
forecast period. A weak front will move in from the north tomorrow
afternoon and evening, shifting winds to a northerly direction at
KABI and KSJT. Otherwise, light south winds will shift to the
east/southeast across the far southern terminals by afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  70  91  70 /  30  30  40  10
San Angelo  96  68  91  67 /  20  30  40  10
Junction    95  68  93  67 /  30  20  30  10
Brownwood   96  68  92  69 /  20  20  30  10
Sweetwater  96  69  89  69 /  30  40  40  20
Ozona       93  68  89  67 /  20  40  40  20
Brady       93  67  90  67 /  30  30  40  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24