315
FXUS64 KSJT 010723
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
223 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday night.

- High chances (70%-100%) for rain this morning and afternoon.
  Heavy rainfall is the main concern with this event and could
  result in flooding.

- Below normal temperatures expected late week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are continuing to progress across the area
early this morning. The main concern will continue to be the
potential for locally heavy rainfall, which may result flooding.
A few strong to severe storms continue to be possible, with
damaging winds being the main concerns. This activity will slowly
move across the forecast area through the morning hours. Most of
this activity should be east of the area by late morning or early
this afternoon, although a few storms could linger across the
northwest Hill Country into the afternoon hours. A Pacific cold
front will track east across the area today, with drier air
filtering in. Highs this afternoon will be slightly cooler, in the
mid 80s to near 90. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The upper trough axis and cold front will be just to our east
Friday. There will be enough lift and tropical moisture around and
some instability for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly
across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland during the afternoon
and evening. There a slight risk of excessive rainfall across this
area for the Day 3 outlook. The main hazard will be localized
heavy rainfall. An unsettled pattern will continue this weekend
into early next week with low chances of rain but looks like the
flash flood threat will end. Expect cooler temperatures with highs
in the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Areas of convection continue to shift east across West Central
Texas early this morning. Will use latest radar trends and CAMs to
pinpoint timing as best as possible. Will go ahead and add some
additional mention into the southeast terminals, where the latest
CAMs show convection redeveloping into the afternoon hours. Away
from the storms, generally VFR conditions are expected with light
south winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     89  65  76  61 /  20  10  40  40
San Angelo  87  62  78  58 /  20   0  30  50
Junction    84  63  79  59 /  80  20  60  70
Brownwood   84  64  78  60 /  70  10  50  60
Sweetwater  88  63  75  59 /  10  10  40  20
Ozona       85  60  78  57 /  20   0  20  50
Brady       82  63  76  59 /  70  20  50  70

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-
Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-
Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...07