259
FXUS64 KSJT 292348
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
648 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
  Thursday night.

- High chances (70%-100%) for rain from Wednesday through Friday,
  along with cooler temperatures by the second half of this week.
  Heavy rainfall is the main concern with this event and could
  result in significant flooding.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday. Below
  normal temperatures late week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Latest model guidance continues to show a favorable pattern for
heavy rainfall and the potential for significant flash flooding
across West Central Texas, primarily Wednesday into Thursday. A
large upper low currently over the Desert Southwest is progged to
track east/northeast across New Mexico and into west Texas during
this time frame. Meanwhile, copious moisture from the remnants of
Hurricane Polo will overspread the area in advance of this system,
with widespread precipitable water values increasing into the 2.0
to 2.4 inch range. Large-scale ascent with the approaching upper
system, combined with moisture laden airmass and the arrival of a
cold front will result in multiple rounds of showers and storms,
some of which will be heavy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours, with
a significant increase in showers and storms expected Wednesday
evening/overnight. Some uncertainty exists regarding just how fast
the precipitation will advance eastward with time, with portions
of the Heartland and northwest Hill Country likely seeing heavy
precipitation lingering into Thursday evening/overnight. In
addition to the heavy rainfall threat, there is a slight risk for
severe storms Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. Damaging
winds and large hail are the main concerns, but an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out.

As for rainfall amounts, still thinking that widespread rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches will be common, with the highest totals
(10% chance) of 4 to 6 inches, and isolated amounts up to 8
inches possible. Given the expected rainfall amounts, there is a
Moderate Risk (40-70%) of excessive rainfall and the potential for
flash flooding across much of the area Wednesday into Wednesday
night, and across portions of the Heartland and northwest Hill
Country on Thursday. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of
West Central Texas late tonight through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

As was mentioned in the short discussion, models show some
uncertainty regarding how quickly the heaviest precipitation
advances eastward by Thursday night. Some of the guidance shows
the bulk of precipitation exiting far southeast counties Thursday
afternoon, while others show heavy precipitation lingering through
Thursday night. For now, will maintain high POPs over the eastern
portions of the Heartland and northwest Hill Country Thursday
night and early Friday. While the threat for heavy rainfall will
come to an end by Friday, a weak trough will reside over the area
over the weekend, which will keep low to medium (20 to 60%) rain
chances lingering over the weekend. In addition, below normal
temperatures are expected Friday through early next week, with
highs in the 70s through Monday. Overnight lows will be in the
upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions currently at all sites with gusty southeast winds.
Expect VFR conditions to continue through around 06Z tonight
before another round of MVFR ceilings develop and quickly move
north across the area, including as far north as KABI. These low
clouds will persist through late morning or early afternoon. Winds
will remain southerly tomorrow, and will continue to be gusty as
well. Have added a PROB30 for TSRA at KABI tomorrow afternoon, but
have held off on introducing any PROB30 groups at the other sites
for now, as storms farther south aren`t expected to have
significant coverage until after 00Z tomorrow night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     74  92  70  87 /  20  80 100  60
San Angelo  71  93  67  86 /  40  50 100  60
Junction    70  94  68  83 /  20  20  80 100
Brownwood   71  93  68  83 /  10  40 100 100
Sweetwater  73  91  67  87 /  60  70  80  30
Ozona       70  91  67  86 /  70  50 100  60
Brady       70  92  68  80 /  10  20  90 100

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through late Thursday night
for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-
Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-
Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...20