138
FXUS64 KSJT 142302
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
602 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch has continues in effect for the Northern Edwards
  Plateau, Northwest Hill Country and Heartland through 9 PM
  this evening.

- A more settled pattern with a warming trend in temperatures is
  expected later this week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) was located over the Edwards
Plateau south-southeast of Sonora early this afternoon. This MCV was
moving to the northeast, and is expected to track across our
southeastern counties through the remainder of this afternoon into
early tonight. An area of rain associated with this feature will
continue to overspread our southern and southeastern counties this
afternoon, and should be primarily over our southeastern counties
north to McCulloch and San Saba Counties this evening into tonight.
Elsewhere, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon and evening with a shear axis aloft and some
instability. Locally heavy downpours are possible. Some additional
rain and isolated thunderstorms will be possible over our far
southern and southeastern counties overnight. A Flood Watch
continues in effect until 9 PM this evening. Will let the evening
shift assess this and decide if the Watch needs to be extended.

Relatively humid conditions will continue tonight and Tuesday with
not much temperature change. Lows tonight will be 69-73 degrees, and
Highs Tuesday will range from the mid to upper 80s in our southern
and central counties, to the upper 80s and lower 90s in the Big
Country. Our area will remain under a shear axis aloft Tuesday, and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
with the unstable airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The global models are indicating pretty much an end to the unsettled
pattern and more of an upper level ridge over our area through
this weekend. As a result, expect warmer temperatures and mainly dry
weather. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Wednesday,
warming into the mid to upper 90s Big Country and northwest Concho
Valley to lower to mid 90s elsewhere this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Storms across West Central Texas have mostly dissipated this
evening. Additional isolated storms will be possible at our two
southern most sites, KSOA and KJCT, after midnight and into the
early morning hours. Low clouds are expected to move into the
area overnight, bringing MVFR CIGs to KSOA, KJCT, KBBD, and
potentially KSJT. Low clouds will start lift in the late morning
to early afternoon. Another round of isolated storms are expected
in the afternoon tomorrow. Confidence is low on exactly where the
storms will form, so we`ve kept mention of storms at a PROB30 for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  89  73  92 /  10  20  10  10
San Angelo  70  86  72  90 /  20  20  10  10
Junction    70  86  72  89 /  30  30  10  10
Brownwood   71  88  72  89 /  20  30  10  10
Sweetwater  70  89  72  93 /  10  20  10  10
Ozona       69  84  71  88 /  30  20  10  10
Brady       70  86  71  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Crockett-
Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Schleicher-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...AP