661
FXUS64 KSJT 011758
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1258 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday night.

- High chances (70%-100%) for rain this morning and afternoon.
  Heavy rainfall is the main concern with this event and could
  result in flooding.

- Below normal temperatures expected late week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are continuing to progress across the area
early this morning. The main concern will continue to be the
potential for locally heavy rainfall, which may result flooding.
A few strong to severe storms continue to be possible, with
damaging winds being the main concerns. This activity will slowly
move across the forecast area through the morning hours. Most of
this activity should be east of the area by late morning or early
this afternoon, although a few storms could linger across the
northwest Hill Country into the afternoon hours. A Pacific cold
front will track east across the area today, with drier air
filtering in. Highs this afternoon will be slightly cooler, in the
mid 80s to near 90. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The upper trough axis and cold front will be just to our east
Friday. There will be enough lift and tropical moisture around and
some instability for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly
across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland during the afternoon
and evening. There a slight risk of excessive rainfall across this
area for the Day 3 outlook. The main hazard will be localized
heavy rainfall. An unsettled pattern will continue this weekend
into early next week with low chances of rain but looks like the
flash flood threat will end. Expect cooler temperatures with highs
in the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

At midday, the back edge of an area of showers and thunderstorms
was gradually shifting east out of our far southeastern counties. Patchy
low clouds (with MVFR ceilings) were over over the southeastern
part of our area, including the KBBD TAF site. This low cloud
cover will break up early this afternoon, and expect VFR
conditions and mostly clear skies this afternoon into tonight.
A pre-frontal surface trough across the eastern half of our area
this afternoon will result in west to northwest winds behind it
(KABI, KSJT and KSOA), with light and variable winds ahead of it
(KBBD and KSOA).

There is model discrepancy on the forecast details for late
tonight and Friday. Overall, expect at least some degradation of
conditions through the day. Low cloud redevelopment is expected
over much of our area mainly from the east. Expect low end VFR to
MVFR ceilings with this cloud cover. A cold front will move south
across our area tonight and Friday, with north winds following
its passage. With some weak upper support and the incoming cold
front, expect scattered (and possibly numerous) showers to develop
on Friday, and a few thunderstorms will be possible. Anticipate
further adjustments to the TAF forecast late tonight and Friday
with subsequent model data.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     65  75  61  75 /   0  50  60  50
San Angelo  62  78  59  74 /  10  30  60  60
Junction    63  76  61  74 /  20  50  70  80
Brownwood   65  73  61  74 /  20  70  80  70
Sweetwater  63  74  59  75 /  10  30  50  40
Ozona       61  77  58  73 /   0  10  60  60
Brady       64  76  60  71 /  20  50  80  80

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for Brown-Kimble-Mason-San Saba.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...19