715
FXCA62 TJSJ 240822 CCA
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
422 AM AST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 417 AM AST Mon Nov 24 2025

* Pleasant temperatures, with a mix of sunshine and clouds, will
  prevail across the USVI and PR throughout the week.

* Breezy trade winds will prevail from Tuesday onward, becoming
  windy by the upcoming weekend.

* Occasional periods of showery weather will affect mainly the
  windward locations of PR and the USVI at times.

* Low risk of rip currents today, increasing to moderate on
  Tuesday evening and Wednesday.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 417 AM AST Mon Nov 24 2025

Trade-wind showers moved across portions of northwest, east, and
southeast Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, overnight. Western Puerto Rico remained mostly cloudy
from late Sunday night into early Monday morning. During the early
morning hours today, skies gradually cleared, leaving mostly
clear skies conditions with a few trade-wind clouds. However,
patches with clouds moved quickly over the St Thomas, St. John and
St Croix. The clear skies allowed overnight cooling to bring
temperatures into the low to mid 70s across coastal areas and
into the low 60s, or slightly lower, in the mountains and valleys.
Winds were mainly from the northeast with land breeze variations.

A zonal flow aloft is expected to prevail across the islands
today. An upper-level shortwave trough will move across the
northeastern Caribbean between late tonight and Tuesday, while the
mid-level ridge shifts westward toward the Cuba/Bahamas region.
If this pattern materializes, the trade-wind inversion will likely
weaken, allowing low-level moisture to rise to around 700 mb or
higher between Tuesday morning and afternoon.

Confidence is moderate/high that the ridge pattern will weaken
further on Wednesday as a polar trough moves north of the region,
supporting a jet streak of 57 to 70 mph over portions of the
local area from early Wednesday morning into the afternoon.

At the surface, high pressure exiting the U.S. Eastern Seaboard this
afternoon will continue pushing a frontal boundary from the western
Atlantic into the central Atlantic by Tuesday. As this occurs, the
local pressure gradient will likely tighten, promoting an increase
in winds as early as Tuesday afternoon and most likely by Wednesday.

Today, remnants of an old boundary will move across the area,
bringing a moderate (30 to 50%) to high (60%) chance of passing
showers across the windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. These showers may spread into the interior and
southwest Puerto Rico by late morning into the afternoon,
maintaining a moderate/high chance (30 to 60%) of rainfall.
Conditions should dry out by this evening, but occasional patches
of moisture will sustain a moderate chance (30 to 50%) of showers
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico eastern third.

An advective trade-wind pattern will dominate over the short term.
This supports a slight (10 to 20%) to moderate (30 to 50%) chance
of showers along the USVI and PR`s windward areas, and a
slight/moderate chance (20 to 50%) of afternoon showers over the
interior and southwest Puerto Rico each day.

Temperatures will continue a cooling trend through midweek, with
model guidance showing 925-mb temperatures near the 25th percentile
for November climatology from today through the middle of the week
and into the long term.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 417 AM AST Mon Nov 24 2025

The long-term period will primarily feature breezy to locally
windy conditions, along with patches of moisture embedded within
the trade winds. These factors will bring a moderate likelihood of
occasional showers. PWAT guidance indicates values remaining near
to slightly below normal for November based on climatological
data.

By Thursday into Friday, the jet streak will shift eastward and
away from the area, while the ridging pattern weakens as a polar
trough moves across the central Atlantic.From Saturday into
early next week, a high-pressure system building over the western
Atlantic will further tighten the pressure gradient, resulting in
stronger breezes. The breeziest days appear to be Sunday and
Monday. A gradual increase in PWAT values may enhance rain
chances, although flooding concerns are not anticipated.

Model guidance suggests that 925-mb temperatures will remain
within the normal to below-normal range for this time of year,
supporting the ongoing transition toward more comfortable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 417 AM AST Mon Nov 24 2025

Trade wind -SHRA/SHRA will occasionally move across local TAFs
(JSJ/IST/ISX) throughout the forecast period. This SHRA/-SHRA will
reach JPS between 24/15-22z, when mountain obsc will form along
the Cordillera Central. Although we expect VFR conds, some of
these SHRA will result in brief MVFR conds by limiting VIS or
increasing Ceilings btwn FL022-FL040. Winds will prevail calm to
light and VRB thru 24/13z, then will continue from the ENE at
10-15 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 417 AM AST Mon Nov 24 2025

High pressure building over the western Atlantic, combined with a
surface trough across the central Atlantic, will maintain gentle
to moderate east to northeast winds today. As the high pressure
system moves into the central Atlantic through mid-week, the
pressure gradient will tighten, promoting moderate to locally
fresh trade winds from tonight or Tuesday onward. As a result,
expect confused seas caused by a mix of locally choppy conditions
and a brief long-period northeasterly swell arriving between
Tuesday and Wednesday. Small craft operators will likely need to
exercise caution, particularly across the offshore waters and
local Caribbean passages for most of the forecast period.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 417 AM AST Mon Nov 24 2025

The risk of rip currents remains low today along all local
beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Remember that
even with a low risk, life-threatening rip currents can still
occur near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.

Conditions are expected to change on Tuesday evening, with the
risk increasing to moderate through Wednesday due to strengthening
winds and a brief northeasterly swell. By Thursday and Friday,
the risk is expected to become high along the north-facing
beaches of the islands. Always check the beach forecast before
heading out, and avoid swimming at beaches with a high risk. For
location-specific information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES...CAM
LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH...YZR