Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR
672 FXCA62 TJSJ 300947 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 547 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 545 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025 * The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season ends TODAY, November 30th. * Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, posing a limited flooding risk, particularly across Puerto Rico. * Breezy to locally windy conditions will prevail through at least Monday. Therefore there is a Small Craft Advisory for the Offshore Atlantic waters. * Moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents through next week for PR and USVI. * The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, should experience pleasant temperatures throughout the forecast period. && .Short Term(Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 545 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025 Fresh easterly winds today brought fast-moving and frequent showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, with a few reaching farther inland. Radar shows up to about 1 inch of rain in isolated spots of eastern Puerto Rico since midnight. Winds were breezy in exposed areas, generally from the east- northeast at 5 to 10 mph, while many inland locations were light or calm. Overnight temperatures dipped into the low 60s in the higher elevations, with upper 70s across eastern and southeastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A typical pattern of passing trade-wind showers will continue this morning, with frequent showers moving inland across northern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. During the afternoon, a few showers will develop across the southwestern hills and downwind from the islands, including the Sierra de Luquillo, steered by a fresh easterly breeze. Some of these showers may produce brief heavier downpours with a limited flooding risk, and a few isolated thunderstorms are also possible. Winds will reach 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts, and may be locally stronger where sea-breeze effects form. Temperatures will remain typical for this time of year, reaching the mid to upper 80s, with a few spots briefly near 90 degrees. The typical overnight and early-morning pattern will return tonight and continue each night, with passing showers affecting northern Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and nearby waters. Afternoon showers will increase each day as conditions become more favorable, shifting toward the southwest as winds turn more northeasterly from Monday into early Tuesday. Winds will gradually weaken as a surface trough approaches from the east, which will allow showers to move more slowly and produce higher rainfall in isolated areas. A deep upper-level trough moving in from the west will linger over the region through Tuesday and will increase the chance of thunderstorms beginning tonight, with the highest potential late tonight into Monday night, especially for eastern Puerto Rico and the USVI. Although flooding remains limited for now, the area at risk may grow over the next few days as thunderstorms become more common and rainfall coverage increases. Lightning risk will also expand. By Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, winds will slowly shift back to an east-northeasterly direction. Nighttime temperatures will be slightly cooler as the winds turn more from the northeast. && .Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)... Issued at 545 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025 An upper-level trough will continue to approach the region midweek, extending its influence into the mid-levels. This pattern will bring a moderate chance of instability (around 40 to 60 percent) across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from Wednesday through the end of the workweek. At the same time, an easterly disturbance will approach the islands, maintaining a humid and somewhat unsettled weather pattern during this period. Thursday currently has the highest probability of additional weather, with deeper moisture and instability supporting a 50 to 70 percent chance of scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. These thunderstorms could temporarily affect outdoor activities. Additionally, if frequent showers develop over the same areas, localized flooding may occur in regions with poor drainage. Therefore, we anticipate a limited flooding risk, particularly over PR. From late Friday into Saturday, a high-pressure system over the western Atlantic will move north of the islands. As it does so, the high pressure will help weaken the trough, promoting a more stable environment. However, lingering moisture (30 to 50 percent chance of showers) will continue to support occasional showers, especially during the overnight and early-morning hours. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025 SHRA will affect TJSJ, TIST, and TISX at times, with brief MVFR CIG/VIS, MNT OBSC, and VIS drops mainly thru 30/14Z and again aft 30/23Z. TJPS/TJBQ may see brief MVFR with aftn SHRA/iso TSRA 30/17-22Z. Winds thru FL015 E 1525 kt. SFC winds light/calm early, increasing to 1520 kt with gusts and SBRZ effects aft 30/13Z, then light/calm again aft 30/22Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 545 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025 A surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic, interacting with a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic, will promote fresh to strong trade winds this weekend into early next week. This will result in choppy to rough seas across most offshore waters and passages, particularly those offshore Atlantic waters. Therefore, a small craft advisory is in effect from 6 AM today across the exposed Atlantic waters. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 545 AM AST Sun Nov 30 2025 The risk of life-threatening rip currents is moderate along north and east-facing beaches, particularly those along the northwestern and southeastern Puerto Rico, as well as in Vieques, Culebra, and the US Virgin Islands. This risk will continue throughout the forecast period. In other areas, while the risk is low, dangerous rip currents can still occur near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Monday for AMZ711. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ICP LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...MMC