878
FXCA62 TJSJ 141800
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
200 PM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

* The risk of urban and small stream flooding remains elevated
  across the interior and western parts of Puerto Rico during the
  weekend.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, expect passing showers at
  times, with no major hazard threats anticipated at this time.

* Although the northerly swell will continue to subside, the risk
  of rip currents will remain moderate over the next few days.
  Therefore, life-threatening rip currents will be possible along
  the Atlantic shorelines.

&&

.Short Term (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies prevailed across the local
islands during the morning hours, transitioning to variably cloudy
conditions in the afternoon. A few passing showers were observed
early this morning, but rainfall totals were minimal. Nevertheless,
locally induced afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms have
begun to develop. These showers will continue over the next few
hours, dissipating by sunset. Temperatures ranged from the mid-80s
to around 90 degrees at lower elevations.

A mid- to upper-level trough east of the region will continue to
weaken as a deep polar trough over the western Atlantic shifts into
the central Atlantic. At lower levels, light to gentle easterly
winds will persist across the local islands, supported by a
weakening frontal boundary to the north and an associated pre-
frontal trough. Winds are expected to veer more toward the east-
southeast on Sunday as a weak surface high establishes itself north
of the region.

Given the evolving nature of this pattern, the trade winds will
continue to transport patches of clouds and showers across the local
islands, favoring passing showers over the windward areas of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Precipitable water values are
expected to remain near normal, with the deepest moisture generally
staying north of the region. Even so, sufficient low-level moisture,
combined with local effects, will support the development of
afternoon showers across the western and interior portions of Puerto
Rico, driven by sea-breeze convergence and orographic effects.

Therefore, the risk of urban and small stream flooding remains high
across the interior and western parts of Puerto Rico during the
weekend.

&&

.Long Term (Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

A surface high pressure centered over the eastern Atlantic will
drive the trade winds from the southeast Monday and Tuesday, and
then from the east on Wednesday. At the mid and upper levels, a
ridge will build over the western Caribbean Sea, bringing a
northwesterly dry flow over the region. At the low level, however,
the southeasterly flow will lift moisture from the Caribbean into
the islands. The global models suggest that this pattern will bring
some showers moving into the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico
at times, followed by afternoon convection in the afternoon across
western Puerto Rico. Since moisture is expected to be shallow in
nature, rain should only be locally strong, with a low chance of
experiencing urban and small stream flooding.

By the latter part of the week, surface high will migrate from the
southeastern portions of the United States into the western Atlantic
Ocean. The high will cause the winds to shift from the northeast,
while causing temperatures to cool down too. The air mass will be
drier too, so the weather will be generally fair, with only a few
showers reaching the area at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

Brief periods of MVFR conditions will remain possible in and around
JSJ/JPS and JBQ through about 14/22Z. After 14/22Z, VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites, with VCSH possible at IST/ISX and
JSJ. Easterly winds around 10 knots, becoming light and variable
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

A light to gentle easterly wind flow will persist across the local
islands, supported by a weakening frontal boundary to the north and
an associated pre-frontal trough. Winds are expected to veer more
toward the east-southeast on Sunday as a weak surface high establishes
north of the region. Although the northerly swell will continue
to subside, small craft operators should exercise caution across
the Atlantic waters, with seas up to 6 feet.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

Conditions will continue to improve tonight as wave energy gradually
dissipates. However, the risk of rip currents will remain moderate
over the next few days, with life-threatening rip currents possible
along the Atlantic shorelines.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002-
     005-008-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001.

AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...OMS
LONG TERM...ERG
AVIATION...OMS
PUBLIC...YZR