Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR
000 FXCA62 TJSJ 101914 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 314 PM AST Mon Nov 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 302 PM AST Mon Nov 10 2025 * The US Virgin Islands can expect a mixture of mostly clear skies and clouds throughout the forecast period. * Puerto Rico will experience mainly fair weather conditions, with the arrival of a few passing showers, producing periods of moderate to locally brief rain at times. * A long-period northerly swell will result in a high risk of rip currents between Thursday and Friday along the north-facing beaches in PR and the USVI. && .Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)... Issued at 302 PM AST Mon Nov 10 2025 The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico experienced calm weather conditions throughout the day due to the arrival of a drier air mass and high pressure aloft. However, occasional showers moved across the windward locations, bringing periods of moderate to locally heavy rains, without resulting in flooding problems. The combination of the available moisture with the maximum temperatures in the upper 80s results in heat indices between 100 and 106 degrees Fahrenheit. Winds were mainly from the east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. A mid-to-upper-level ridge over the Northeast Caribbean will promote stable weather through the short term. Meanwhile, at the surface, a high pressure across the Central Atlantic will interact with a frontal boundary moving eastward across the Western Atlantic. This pattern will result in an easterly wind flow, becoming more northeasterly by Wednesday. Additionally, a mid to upper-level trough will amplify to the east of the Leeward Islands, promoting occasional trade wind perturbations. These perturbations will result in frequent passing showers, especially at night, across the regional waters, moving inland at times. Western Puerto Rico can expect limited afternoon convection each day, and more to the southwest quadrant by Wednesday. && .Long Term(Thursday through Monday)... Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025 A mid to upper level ridge will stay in place for the end of the workweek and the weekend, maintaining a fair weather pattern across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. North of the ridge, a polar trough will move from the eastern coast of the United States into the Atlantic Ocean. This will maintain the trade winds week, mostly coming from the southeast at speeds of 11 kts on Thursday, and less than 3 to 8 knots from Friday into early next week. For most of the period, columnar moisture will be below normal, so rainfall activity will be limited to a few showers along eastern Puerto Rico and the United States, and limited convection in the west in the afternoon hours. The risk of urban and small stream flooding will be low to none for the period. The day with the highest chances of rain will be on Saturday, as a frontal boundary approaches the region. Even then, rainfall is not expected to be widespread or too strong, but with enough moisture, showers should fire up along the interior of Puerto Rico, while others also reach the Virgin Islands occasionally. Temperatures will be seasonably warm too, or slightly above normal, with highs still in the mid and upper 80s in urban and low elevated areas. Los will be mostly in the 70s for coastal areas, and in the 60s for the highest mountains. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 302 PM AST Mon Nov 10 2025 VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the period. VCSH possible at TJBQ thru 11/00z, and at TJSJ, TIST, and TISX at times. Winds will remain mainly from the east at 10-15 kt, with occasional higher gusts and sea breeze variations, mainly during the morning and afternoon hours. Overnight, we expect calm to light and VRB winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 PM AST Mon Nov 10 2025 A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic, interacting with a frontal boundary moving eastward across the western Atlantic, will promote moderate to locally fresh easterly winds for the next few days. This conditions will result in choppy seas. Then, a north-northwesterly swell will increase seas across the local Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages by midweek, when Small Craft Advisories will be likely required. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 PM AST Mon Nov 10 2025 A surface high pressure over the north central Atlantic will promote moderate to locally fresh easterly winds for the next few days, maintaining choppy seas. A north-northwesterly swell will bring hazardous marine conditions across the local waters and passages by midweek. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 302 PM AST Mon Nov 10 2025 The islanders and visitors can expect a moderate risk of rip currents today across most of the shorelines of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Then, we expect a low risk by tomorrow, Tuesday. A north-northwesterly swell will bring hazardous beach conditions, particularly along north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, increasing the risk of rip currents to moderate to high during the second part of the workweek, Wednesday through Friday. Beachgoers are urged to heed the advice of the flag warning system and to always swim near a lifeguard. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ Morning Crew...CAM/MNG Evening Crew...MRR/YZR