580
FXCA62 TJSJ 140811
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
411 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

* High rip current risk remains today for northern Puerto Rico,
  Culebra, St. Thomas and St. John today. Conditions will gradually
  improve this weekend, but a moderate rip current risk remains.

* Showers will develop along western Puerto Rico this afternoon,
  with a moderate change of experiencing urban and small stream
  flooding. Avoid flood prone areas and roads.

* Across the Virgin Islands, passing showers are expected during the
  day, but the rain should not be cause high impacts.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

A variable weather pattern persisted across the local waters and
some eastern sections due to a perturbation at 700 mb, which
resulted in cloudiness and moisture moving across the islands.
Showers were more intense over the local waters, with light to
moderate rain affecting some eastern sections. According to Doppler
radar estimates, rainfall accumulations of nearly 1 inch were
observed over western Humacao, and less across the rest of the
areas. Minimum temperatures remained in the low 80s across the
coastal regions, while being fresher in the mountain areas.

For the rest of the morning and into the afternoon hours, the
islands will be dominated mainly by the perturbation moving across
the islands, which will continue to enhance cloudiness and produce
isolated to scattered showers. As the morning progresses, an area
with less moisture will filter in, as shown in the precipitation
water satellite-derived imagery. This drier area will allow the
islands to experience a decrease in cloudiness; however, it will
enhance diurnal heating, resulting in afternoon convection. Surface
winds will vary from the east to the southeast and will become
lighter to gentle due to the presence of a frontal boundary that is
sinking southward north of the islands. As a result, the focus of
the showers will be across the interior and northwestern sections of
Puerto Rico.

For early Saturday, the influence of the prefrontal trough is
expected to result in veering winds across the region, with winds
shifting from the northeast to the south throughout the day. At the
same time, the frontal band is expected to weaken, and patches of
moisture with precipitable water values between 1.5 and 1.7 inches,
which are near the climatological normals, will move across the
area. Given these conditions, the islands could experience a
variable weather pattern, with afternoon showers mainly occurring
across the interior. For Sunday, some instability is expected due to
the proximity of a mid- to upper-level trough, as shown by the 250
mb heights. This instability will result in colder temperatures at
500 mb, ranging from -6 to -8 degrees Celsius. Therefore,
thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out with the strongest showers
across the interior and northeastern Puerto Rico, as well as nearby
offshore areas to the northeast of the island. The change in the
wind flow from Saturday into Sunday could lead to an increase in
heat index values between 100 and 105 degrees across portions of the
north-central and urban coastal areas of the island. If you are
exposed to the sun for long periods, remember to stay hydrated.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

A surface high pressure centered over the eastern Atlantic will
drive the trade winds from the southeast Monday and Tuesday, and
then from the east on Wednesday. At the mid and upper levels, a
ridge will build over the western Caribbean Sea, bringing a
northwesterly dry flow over the region. At the low level, however,
the southeasterly flow will lift moisture from the Caribbean into
the islands. The global models suggest that this pattern will bring
some showers moving into the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico
at times, followed by afternoon convection in the afternoon across
western Puerto Rico. Since moisture is expected to be shallow in
nature, rain should only be locally strong, with a low chance of
experiencing urban and small stream flooding.

By the latter part of the week, surface high will migrate from the
southeastern portions of the United States into the western Atlantic
Ocean. The high will cause the winds to shift from the northeast,
while causing temperatures to cool down too. The air mass will be
drier too, so the weather will be generally fair, with only a few
showers reaching the area at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions will persist across all TAF sites
during the period. From 14/17Z, brief MVFR conditions are expected
at TJBQ and TJPS due to SHRA and VCTS, resulting in lower CIGs and
reduced VIS. Winds will remain from the east at around 10 knots
through 14/15Z, then become light and shift to the E-NE by 15/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

A northerly swell will gradually subside today, but still maintaining
conditions hazardous for small craft across the offshore Atlantic
waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds tonight will gradually weaken
today as a pre-frontal trough approaches the islands from the
north.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

A decaying long-period northwesterly swell will maintain
hazardous breaking waves and life-threatening rip currents along
the north- facing beaches in PR and St Thomas, St John early today.
Thus, the risk of rip currents will be high for today. Conditions
will continue to gradually improve by later today and tonight as
the wave energy dissipates, leaving a moderate risk of rip
currents for the weekend.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST today for AMZ711.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST early this morning for
     AMZ712-716.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LIS
LONG TERM/MARINE....ERG