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FZUS81 KBUF 020153
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Saint Lawrence Freeze Up Date Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
853 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

...FREEZE-UP DATE OUTLOOK FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER...

The date of the first freeze-up on the Saint Lawrence River near
Massena, NY is forecast to be January 5, 2027.

WATER TEMPERATURES...

Water temperatures have been running near average in the upper Saint
Lawrence River from late October through November 1st. A warm
weather pattern on the whole over the next few weeks will likely
allow water temperatures to only slowly fall, with above average
water temperatures favored by the middle of November.

Water Temperatures November 1st:

Alexandria Bay, NY   55F (normal 55F)

UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FLOW...

Flow in the upper Saint Lawrence River has been running around
248,000 cfs over the past week, which is above the long term
average. Flows are expected to continue to run above average through
the month of November. Higher than average flows result in a
stronger current in the river, which can delay shore to shore ice
formation.

AIR TEMPERATURES...

Air temperatures were near average through the month of October
across the Saint Lawrence Valley. Many days featured warm high
temperatures, but there were also an abundance of clear and cool
nights through the month.

October Average Air Temperatures through October 31st:

Watertown, NY   48.8F (normal)
Massena, NY     46.7F (0.8F below normal)

FORECAST FOR THE REST OF NOVEMBER...

Above average temperatures are favored much of the time through the
month of November. Well above average temperatures are expected much
of the upcoming week, with a cooling trend back to near average by
next weekend. The pattern over the next 2 to 3 weeks will likely
support above average temperatures most days, with short lived
periods of cooler weather only bringing temperatures back close to
average.

A very strong El Nino is maturing in the Pacific Ocean, and is
expected to peak in strength during late fall and early winter. Very
strong El Nino events strongly favor above average temperatures
during the winter in the Great Lakes and Saint Lawrence Valley. The
greatest positive temperature departures often occur in November and
December before trending back closer to average in late winter.

Given the above factors, the first freeze-up on the Saint Lawrence
River near Massena, NY is forecast to be January 5, 2027. This
date is a week to 10 days later than the long term average.

NOTE: Once the water temperature drops to the mid 30s, ice cover can
develop in just one very cold, calm night.

NOTE: This forecast is for the first shore to shore freeze-up of the
Saint Lawrence River near Massena, NY. The first permanent shore to
shore ice often occurs several weeks later.

$$

Hitchcock