352
FXUS65 KSLC 080436
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1036 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Day 3 of critical fire weather conditions persist across central
and southern UT tomorrow, lasting through at least Wednesday as
forecast confidence continues regarding gusty conditions with low
relative humidity each afternoon.

- Given preceding dry and gusty conditions, blowing dust is expected
once again across much of UT and southwest WY tomorrow afternoon.

- On Tuesday, strong to severe thunderstorms may form ahead of an
incoming cold front across northern UT. Strong to severe wind gusts
and potentially severe hail appear to be the primary threats.

- A warming and drying trend takes hold Thursday into the weekend
with high temperatures climbing above climatological averages.


&&

.DISCUSSION... Once again, the critical fire weather threat
continues across central and southern UT tomorrow as winds see a
notable increase ahead of a midlevel trough. Despite afternoon
humidities remaining somewhat higher than the past few days in the
low-teens, a stronger and more widespread wind threat is on track to
develop across central and southern UT. While probabilities for wind
gusts greater than 40mph have tapered off somewhat and become more
localized, probabilities for gusts in excess of 30mph remain around
70%+ across the majority of central and southern UT tomorrow
afternoon. Thankfully, dry thunderstorms do not appear to pose a
threat tomorrow compared to the past couple days as height rises
persist across central and southern UT as the initial midlevel
trough lifts to our northeast.

On Tuesday, the critical fire weather threat appears to favor
southeast UT where probabilities for gusts in excess of 40mph range
from 40-60%. Across the remainder of southern UT and central UT,
probabilities for gusts greater than 30mph remain widespread and
rather high around 70%+. Wind probabilities surrounding western UT
and especially the Washington county area remain uncertain at this
time as the subtropical jet is displaced further east, favoring
eastern UT and western CO, all while the midlevel trough lifts north
with the stronger flow aloft. Additionally, CAM guidance hints at a
potential mid-level warm later which would prevent winds from mixing
down to the surface across the aforementioned areas. This has
created a somewhat uncertain forecast for Tuesday with respect to
winds.

On Tuesday afternoon, a rather interesting severe setup may develop
along the ID/UT border favoring strong to severe thunderstorms and
perhaps the development of a couple supercells. At the surface, a
cold front will slowly swing into the area from the northwest with
ample midlevel moisture in place as a midlevel trough swings toward
the PNW. As the parent trough begins to deepen and take a negative
tilt across the PNW, a shortwave appears to deepen along the base of
the trough resulting in enhanced midlevel westerly flow to around
50kts along the frontal boundary and across the ID/UT border. With
enhanced flow aloft and modest surface flow out of the south-
southwest, bulk shear values ranging from 30-40kts appears evident
across most 00z CAM guidance. Additionally, H5 temperatures will be
rather cold for June ranging from -14C to -17C. Coupled with surface
temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s, these cold H5 temperatures
will steepen lapse rates markedly to around 7.5-8C/km. While these
lapse rates aren`t necessarily steep compared to most hot and dry
summer days across the Great Basin, this is notable given dewpoints
ahead of the front across northern UT are forecast to range from the
mid 40s to upper 50s yielding a significantly smaller dewpoint
depression than our run of the mill dry thunderstorm days. With this
anomalous overlap of parameters, the potential for strong to severe
storms developing ahead of the cold front cannot be ruled out
Tuesday afternoon. Given ample shear and instability in place,
isolated supercells cannot be ruled out which would pose a severe
wind and hail threat. Some uncertainties exist regarding the
southeastern extent of the cold front, though high confidence exists
regarding thunderstorm development across northern UT Tuesday
afternoon.

Wednesday will bring another round of fire weather conditions to
central and southern UT, though uncertainty remains regarding the
northern and western extent of the critical fire weather conditions
due to frontal boundary placement. Winds may struggle to mix to the
surface across much of western UT on Wednesday, and as such,
westernmost fire zones have been removed from the fire weather watch
for Wednesday.

From Thursday on, height rises appear likely as nearly all global
ensembles indicate large-scale ridging building off the West Coast.
This will result in primarily westerly flow areawide, serving to
raise temperatures to roughly 5-10F above seasonal normals as early
as Thursday. Ensembles hint at a pivot to northwesterly flow aloft
with embedded shortwaves potentially yielding a few instances of
unsettled weather across the CWA this weekend, though high
uncertainty regarding this outcome exists at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Breezy northerly winds remain in place over the
KSLC terminal through around 08Z before a southerly drainage flow
begins to settle in through the overnight hours. Light south winds
will persist into the early afternoon on Monday, becoming northerly
around 18-19Z. VFR conditions are expected to be maintained under
increasing high level cloud cover.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions prevail across
the area under increasing high level cloud cover through the
forecast period. Breezy northerly winds will prevail across the West
Desert through around 09-10Z before relaxing, with all other
terminal expected to see light drainage flows overnight. Gusty
southwest winds resume by the early afternoon hours on Monday for
much of the region with peak gusts expected around 25-30kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire weather conditions continue across
central and southern Utah through this evening given widespread
southwesterly winds with gusts 30-40 mph and RH in the low teens.
There is a more conditional fire weather threat once again this
afternoon, mainly across portions of central to northeastern Utah
as high-based thunderstorms develop this afternoon, with potential
to produce dry lightning strikes and gusty and erratic outflow
winds to 50 mph. Winds taper this evening areawide, but another
weather system digging into the Great Basin Monday into Tuesday
will bring another extended period of gusty southwesterly winds
with gusts 30-40 and locally to 45 mph through this period.
Strongest winds will be favored across the western half of Utah on
Monday, then shift to eastern Utah on Tuesday. A mostly dry cold
front sweeping through the region late Tuesday will bring
downsloping winds to portions of eastern Utah on Wednesday, which
will bring locally critical fire weather conditions as daytime
humidity values remain in the single digits to low teens across
the area.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Monday to 10 PM MDT Tuesday for
     UTZ484-489-492>498.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for UTZ484-489-493-494-496-498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Worster
AVIATION...Webber
FIRE WEATHER...Whitlam

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity