055
FXUS65 KSLC 130007
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
607 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1212 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026...


- Monsoonal moisture looks to bring daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms across much of UT through Friday before drying out
this weekend.

- Below-normal temperatures look to develop tomorrow, persisting
through Monday before a return to seasonally-normal temperatures.

- Monsoonal moisture looks to return to the area Monday, potentially
persisting through much of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1212 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026...
 High pressure remains in place across the Four
Corners with UT settled well within a southwest flow regime serving
to push monsoonal moisture across the area. Currently, widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing and forecast to
increase in coverage throughout the afternoon into the evening.
PWATs in excess of 1" will overspread much of UT with southwest UT
potentially seeing PWAT`s in excess of 1.3" per mesoanalysis. This
will enable mature storms to produce heavy rainfall this afternoon,
potentially yielding a flash flooding threat for slow-moving storms,
especially those over problematic terrain.

As the ridge progresses east somewhat tomorrow afternoon, this will
allow a trough over the PNW to deepen somewhat resulting in stronger
forcing over the area tomorrow afternoon into Friday afternoon.
Friday remains somewhat uncertain regarding the flooding threat
given moisture quality is up in the air, though tomorrow looks to
maintain robust moisture across much of the state potentially
enhancing the flooding threat. Additionally, stronger ascent via the
aforementioned trough may potentially yield more widespread mature
storms, increasing the flash flood risk on a larger scale. One
failure mode with tomorrow regarding flash flooding will be faster
storm motions, though training storms remains possible tomorrow
afternoon which may offset this.

Come Saturday and Sunday, low-level moisture will decrease following
the passage of a cold front. Mid-upper moisture remains in place,
however, resulting in daily afternoon thunderstorms persisting
across higher terrain across much of UT in the afternoon hours.
Additionally, this will serve to lower afternoon temperatures to
roughly 10F below average across much of the state.

On Monday, the ridge looks to retrogress west centering itself over
the Four Corners region once again, opening up UT to more monsoonal
moisture return. As of now, chances appear rather favorable for the
monsoonal moisture pattern to continue through much of next week,
bringing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to much of UT
once again. Additionally, temperatures look to remain moderated
following a brief warm-up into Monday with seasonally normal
temperatures persisting through at least Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...After a brief lull, showery conditions redevelop
later this evening, with a 30% chance for showers to impact the
terminal with gusty and variable winds between 04-10z. Otherwise, a
persistent mid-to-high level cloud deck persists into Thursday, with
showers and thunderstorms redeveloping again after 22z. These storms
will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could briefly lower
VIS to MVFR and reduce CIGS <6kft. Outside of gusty outflow winds,
winds remain generally light and diurnally driven.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue across the southern portion of the airspace
into early Thursday morning. A brief lull in activity is expected
across the northern portion of the airspace this evening, before
scattered showers and thunderstorms become more widely spread
Thursday morning. Widespread convective activity is expected to
develop again after 18-20z Thursday across much of the airspace,
with potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds to 40 kts
as well as heavy rainfall that could push VIS into the MVFR category.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1212 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026...
The Four Corners high pressure continues to persist
resulting in continued monsoonal moisture across UT bringing
daily showers and thunderstorms to much of the state. While a
widespread wetting rain is not expected this afternoon, Thursday
afternoon appears to bring the highest chance of a wetting rain
through this stretch across much of the state as the high pressure
slides east somewhat with a storm system moving in its wake
through Friday. Come Saturday and Sunday, a drier airmass moves
into the state keeping showers and thunderstorms mostly confined
to higher terrain. On Monday, high pressure moves back west
somewhat potentially bringing monsoonal moisture back to UT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Worster
AVIATION...Whitlam
FIRE WEATHER...Worster

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http://weather.gov/saltlakecity