013
FXUS65 KSLC 011325
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
625 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 906 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026...


- There is a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall (level 3 of 4)
  across portions of southern Utah, as a surge of moisture brings
  widespread rainfall across the region. A Flood Watch is in
  effect for much of southern and east central Utah late tonight
  through Sunday evening.

- Accumulating mountain snow is expected across all Utah
  mountains Sunday through Monday morning. Upwards of 12" of snow
  is expected above 9000 feet, and 3-6" of snow down to around
  7000 feet. Upper elevations of the Cottonwoods and western
  Uintas may see localized accumulations 18-24".

- Cool, dry, and stable conditions will temporarily build in
  Tuesday, with another weak storm system expected during the
  Wendesday-Thursday timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 906 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026...


An inland-penetrating Atmospheric River (AR) coupled with a deep
upper trough spreading into the Great Basin later tonight through
Sunday will bring widespread rain and high elevation snow to the
forecast area over the next 36 hours. This AR is currently making
landfall with widespread precipitation quickly spreading across
the lower deserts of southern CA and AZ. This moisture will
quickly spread across the forecast area from south to north
overnight, and persist through Sunday morning.

The forecast has remained fairly consistent over the past couple
of days, with locally upwards of 3" of additional rain across
orographically favored areas of southern Utah from the Pine
Valleys east to Boulder Mountain, and 1+ inches of rain in lower
elevations including St George, Cedar City, Zion Canyon and Kanab.
Given recent rainfall over the past few weeks, antecedent
conditions are nearly saturated and runoff is expected to be very
efficient, resulting in another round of flooding across southern
and east central Utah beginning late tonight, and continuing
through Sunday.

As the region of enhanced IVT shifts east of the forecast area
Sunday afternoon, the upstream trough will spread into the Great
Basin, with increasing large scale ascent interacting with an
already saturated airmass to maintain widespread precipitation
through the afternoon and into the evening. Cooling temperatures
aloft will begin lowering snow levels from west to east during the
afternoon, with snow levels falling below 8000 feet by late Sunday
evening across nearly the entire forecast area excluding the far
southeast. As this trough progresses into the central Rockies, a
favorable period of post-frontal orographics looks to persist
along the I-15 corridor through Sunday night, before gradually
winding down Monday morning. Total snow accumulation looks to run
in the 3-6" range below 9000 feet, while higher elevations will be
pushing 12"+, and perhaps upwards of 20" in the upper Cottonwoods.
Low elevation rainfall totals will likely exceed 1" across most
northern valleys including much of the Wasatch Front through
Monday morning.

Mid level ridging will bring temporary dry and stable conditions
late Monday through Tuesday, with a more progressive wave forecast
to translate through the region Wednesday into Thursday. This
quick-hitting wave will lack the moisture tap of recent events,
thus precipitation totals will remain fairly light. Long range
models lean heavily toward longwave ridging building into the
region next weekend into early in the following week.



&&

.HYDROLOGY, Issued 1012 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026...
Through Sunday night, Issued 1012 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026...
additional rainfall, locally
heavy across southern Utah, will once again bring elevated
potential for localized flash flooding and widespread rises to
area waterways in southern and portions of central Utah. The most
significant period of precipitation is expected on Sunday.

Earlier precipitation brought areas of flooding to portions of
southwest Utah. However, coverage has decreased this evening. A
relative downtick in heavy rain potential exists for Saturday, but
the primary precipitation producer will be moving into the area
Sunday. The broad upper trough off the Pac Coast is expected to
phase with a strong short wave embedded within a strengthening
southern tier jet. Anticipated set-up will allow a land falling
atmospheric river (AR) to penetrate inland into southern/central
Utah producing widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall
across the Arizona strip, Grand Staircase, and southern/central
mountain regions, including National Parks and Recreation Areas
within these areas. Rainfall amounts of 1-2.5" are likely with
this, and given antecedent conditions, will efficiently runoff the
landscape promoting widespread rises for all waterways, including
streams, creeks, normally dry washes, slot canyons, and rivers
across the region.




&&

.AVIATION...
KSLC...Persistent rain will continue into this afternoon,
maintaining CIGS below 7kft along with mountain obscurations.
Periods of MVFR conditions can also be expected during this time,
with a 20% chance of briefly lowering to IFR. Southeasterly winds
will turn more northwesterly this afternoon behind a cold front. By
late afternoon or early evening, precipitation may become more
showery but periodic MVFR conditions will remain possible.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Widespread rain will continue
across the area through at least midafternoon today before
precipitation starts trending more showery. Widespread mountain
obscurations can be expected through the day and many terminals will
see at least periods of MVFR conditions and may briefly dip into the
IFR category. Precipitation will become increasingly confined to
the mountains through the night.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Monday for UTZ111-112.

     Flood Watch through this evening for UTZ120-121-123>125-127>131.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...
AVIATION...Cheng
HYDROLOGY...

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