599
FXUS65 KSLC 050431
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1031 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will continue to climb through Saturday. This will
  increase the threat for heat-related illness for those who are
  sensitive to heat, without adequate cooling or hydration, or
  have chronic health conditions.

- Dry conditions and some gusty winds will bring the potential for
  isolated critical fire weather conditions on Friday. With winds
  increasing further this weekend and persisting through at least
  early next week, the potential for critical fire weather
  conditions will become more widespread for an extended period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Weak ridging across Utah and southwest Wyoming is
bringing dry, stable, and unseasonably warm conditions this
evening. High temperatures averaged up to 10F above seasonal
normals this afternoon and will increase by a few degrees more for
tomorrow into Saturday, with high temperatures as much as 15F
above seasonal normals by Saturday afternoon.

Conditions will stay quite dry across the area over the next
several days. Isolated breezy conditions will bring some isolated
critical fire weather conditions for tomorrow, primarily for
southwestern portions of the state. As a trough approaches the
Pacific Northwest coast for Saturday, winds will increase further
across Utah and southwest Wyoming, combining with the dry
conditions to bring more widespread critical fire weather
conditions.

There is relatively high confidence that the trough will graze
northern Utah Saturday night into Sunday morning, bringing
temperatures back to near seasonal normals for Sunday afternoon
across northern portions of the area, and within 5F above seasonal
normals across southern Utah. The associated cold front still
looks to be mostly dry, but guidance overall is trending toward
having just a bit more moisture along the front, which could bring
a few high based storms as it passes through.

Southerly winds across the area are expected to relax a bit for
Sunday with the grazing trough. However, guidance is consistent in
showing another broad trough approaching the Pacific Northwest
coast for Monday. This storm is most likely to wobble around the
Pacific Northwest but guidance, as it does, is struggling with the
details of the solution for this closed low. As long as this
system remains west of the area, breezy conditions will persist,
keeping the fire danger high. The eventual passage of the system
across the area around the midweek period would bring cooler
temperatures and the potential for showers, but confidence remains
quite low on the timing.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions prevail through the valid
TAF period under mostly clear skies. A weak boundary is expected to
cross the terminal between 06-07z which will bring a shift to light
northerly winds for 2-4 hours (or at the very least, variable winds)
before light southerly winds return. Northwesterly winds are
expected again after 15-16z, though they will likely remain 6kt or
less until after 18z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...No impactful weather expected
across the airspace through the TAF period. VFR conditions are
expected areawide with winds generally following diurnal trends for
most regional terminals. The exception will be northern Utah
terminals which will see a period of northerly winds through around
07-10z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There is high confidence that rather dry
conditions will persist across Utah over the next several days.
Southerly winds across the area will pick up on Saturday ahead of
an approaching storm system, and this is likely to bring
relatively widespread critical fire weather conditions,
particularly for central and southern Utah. The storm system will
graze northern Utah Saturday night into Sunday morning. The main
impact will be noticeably cooler temperatures, particularly for
northern Utah, and some decrease in winds. However, there is the
potential for isolated high based convection with the front, which
would bring a low threat of dry lightning. Winds will pick up
again beginning Monday with another Pacific Northwest storm system
approaching. This will be a much slower moving system, with gusty
winds persisting through at least midweek, bringing a high chance
of a prolonged period of critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Tuesday evening
     for UTZ484-489-492>498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
AVIATION...Cheng

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity