Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
433 FXUS65 KSLC 021025 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 325 AM MST Sun Nov 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected across the region through mid-week. Southwesterly flow will increase on Wednesday ahead of the next storm system which will bring generally light precipitation to northern Utah for Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure over the area this morning will remain in place through the day. This will maintain dry and stable conditions and mild temperatures, along with generally light winds. Afternoon max temperatures across the forecast area today will range from 8-14 degrees above normal for this time of year. A closed low currently noted off the SoCal coast will eject inland tonight and cross Utah as a weakening shortwave trough tomorrow. This system is expected to have little impact for Utah, as it will be accompanied by very little moisture other than some high clouds. Behind it, the flow will turn more zonal for Tuesday with benign weather and above-normal warmth continuing. By Wednesday morning, a ridge will rebound ahead of an upstream trough. Southwesterly flow will increase through the day Wednesday. Global deterministic models are showing H7 winds of 40-45kt across southwest Utah Wednesday afternoon, and combined with a southerly surface pressure gradient, gusty winds can be expected across at least western Utah. Going forward, may have to at least monitor for possible wind highlights, but for the time being, the NBM only has a 25% chance of reaching advisory criteria (and that is over a small portion of southwest Utah), and ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index is only showing a modest signal for strong winds. The trough is expected to cross northern Utah late Wednesday night into Thursday. Last few model runs have trended towards a weaker, less-amplified solution. As such, precipitation amounts look to remain relatively light and confined to northern Utah. Even at the 75th percentile of the NBM, precipitation amounts are less than 0.25 inches. While temperatures will cool for Thursday behind a cold front, afternoon maxes will remain near to slightly above climatological normals. As such, snow levels will be fairly high, above 7kft. A trailing disturbance looks to graze northern Utah late Friday into Saturday morning. This will maintain unsettled weather across northern Utah, but again, any precipitation will likely be rather unimpressive. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Light, southeasterly winds will continue through the morning, becoming light and variable at times. Northwesterly winds will return after ~18-19z, with VFR conditions and clear skies prevailing. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Light, terrain-driven winds will persist at most sites, with VFR conditions and clear skies. Southwest Wyoming/KEVW will likely experience breezy westerly winds after ~18z, gusting to 20-25kts. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Cheng/Cunningham For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity