323
FXUS65 KSLC 120010
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
610 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1226 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026...



- A marginal risk of excessive rainfall will continue across much
  of Utah through at least Friday. This risk expands further north
  on Thursday and Friday.

- Temperatures will decrease 10-15 degrees by the end of the week
  with slightly drier air pushing into the area by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1226 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026...
Monsoon moisture will remain in place through Friday
as the ridge responsible for this influx gradually shifts to the
east. As this ridge shifts to the east a weak trough will push
into the western CONUS. This will enhance lift on Thursday and
Friday to expand widespread convection across all of Utah and SW
Wyoming. The flash flooding risk will gradually expand into
northern Utah Thursday and Friday with slot canyons, normal dry
washes, urban areas, and recent burn scars will be most
susceptible to flooding.

Convection will develop each afternoon and persist through the
early evening before gradually diminishing overnight. The caveat
with this will be for the potential for nocturnal convection.
Guidance continues to hint at lingering moisture overnight, such
as tonight across northern Utah, but models struggle to capture
these features accurately. The most likely time for nocturnal
activity will come Thursday and Friday as forcing increases.
Temperatures will also trend down 10-15 degrees with the increased
cloud coverage and cooling temperatures aloft.

Slightly drier air moves into the area this weekend with most of
the diurnal convection confined to the higher terrain. Moisture
moves back into the area next week as the ridge re-positions
itself over the Four Corners. This active pattern looks to remain
across the area, in some form, through the next couple of weeks.


&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the valid TAF period. Winds will most likely prevail out of
the south through the rest of the night. If north winds do return
this evening, they are expected to be brief, lasting generally an
hour or less through 02z. There is a 20-30% chance of showers and
thunderstorms affecting the terminal through 04z this evening, then
periodic rain showers will become more likely after 09z and
continuing through mid-morning. Winds may be occasionally erratic
near these showers. A transition to northwest winds is expected
around 19z tomorrow, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon thereafter.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to
prevail over the airspace today with generally light and terrain
driven winds outside of showers. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue through this evening, then rain showers are expected
across northern Utah overnight. Any thunderstorms or stronger
showers that develop will be capable of producing gusty and erratic
winds with a chance of mountain obscurations and temporary MVFR
conditions from heavy rainfall.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1226 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026...
Monsoon moisture will continue to surge into Utah
through the remainder of the week with storms developing during the
afternoon and weakening late evening and overnight. Some nocturnal
activity will remain and persist, but the details of when and where
with these storms will likely remain uncertain until the day of.
Storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds
along with frequent lightning and brief heavy rain.

A storm system approaches by Thursday that will increase southwesterly
winds, but RH will remain elevated. This storm system will help to
expand precipitation across most of northern Utah, persisting through
Friday. Temperatures will cool 10-15 degrees across the area as this
system brings a cooler airmass. By the weekend, a slightly drier
airmass will limit most of the diurnal storms to the high terrain
before better moisture returns next week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mahan
AVIATION...Cheng
FIRE WEATHER...Mahan

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