844
FXUS65 KSLC 160901
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
301 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will continue through at least Thursday.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur
  across central and southern Utah Tuesday into Wednesday.

- The next monsoon surge is increasing in probability to begin on
  Friday...which will be the next chance for measurable rainfall
  for the vast majority of the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1016 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026...
Drier air will remain in place across the area through at least
the middle of the week. The prior trough that brought widespread
precipitation has lifted back to the north with shortwave ridging
building back into place before a more substantial ridge
redevelops across the Four Corners area later in the week. Low and
mid level moisture remains high enough over the coming days that
diurnal convection will still persist across the higher terrain
(~20-30% chance) with a few (~5% chance) storms possible across
the lower terrain. Temperatures will get back into the 90s
tomorrow with a gradual increase as the ridge strengthens across
the area.

Guidance has trended further north with a shortwave moving
through Montana on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will keep winds a
bit weaker with storm chances lower compared to prior forecasts.
Winds are now forecast to remain <30 mph for afternoon gusts. This
will limit the locally critical to elevated fire weather
conditions given that RH will also stay >15% across most
locations.

The monsoon pattern starts to redevelop by the end of the weekend
as a ridge becomes centered near the Arizona/New Mexico border.
The majority of guidance has PWAT anomalies remaining above normal
through the remainder of the month which is line with the 6-10
and 8-14 day outlook.

&&

.AVIATION, Issued 1016 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026...
South winds are expected to prevail through the night into Sunday
morning before turning northwest around 19z, with a 30% chance
the wind shift will occur around 20z or later. VFR conditions will
prevail through the valid TAF period. There is a 10% chance of a
rain shower over/near the terminal Sunday afternoon which, if it
occurs could produce briefly gusty and erratic winds.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail
areawide through the valid TAF period. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected to redevelop again Sunday afternoon.
Generally light winds with typical diurnal trends are expected at
area terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A drying and warming trend will continue across
the region. This will bring near critical to critical humidities
as early as today across many valley locations. These low
humidities will continue through Friday before another monsoon
surge begins to impact the region. Elevated to locally critical
fire weather conditions remain forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday
across portions of central and southern Utah.

The next chance for wetting rains will be Friday, especially
across the higher terrain.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Mahan/Cheng

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity