764
FXUS65 KSLC 231901
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
101 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1059 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026...


- Showers continue Friday across portions of northern Utah and
  southwest Wyoming as the core of a broad low shifts in. Showers
  then redevelop across portions of southern and eastern Utah
  Saturday and Sunday.

- Disturbances will continue to ripple through the region through
  the upcoming week, maintaining periods of unsettled weather with
  occasional dry days mixed in.

- Below normal to seasonable temperatures persist into the
  upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1059 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026...
Morning satellite water vapor loop shows the core of a
large scale trough pivoting into northern Utah through the Great
Basin. Lingering moisture combined with synoptic forcing from the
trough will result in scattered shower activity persisting across
portions of northern Utah and southwest Wyoming through the day
Friday. A few embedded thunderstorms may also develop during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Overall though, not anticipating
this activity to be overly impactful especially in comparison to the
prior days. Other than that, just a chilly day across the area with
afternoon highs around 5-10 degrees below seasonal normal, and
watching as streams and basins in southern Utah gradually drain.

Moving into Saturday, a portion of the trough will become cutoff
from the mean flow and sink through Utah and into the Desert
Southwest. This will allow for a continuation of cooler and somewhat
unsettled conditions, with showers and a few thunderstorms
redeveloping across southeast Utah by Saturday morning. With the
slow progression of the low, unsettled conditions will then continue
on into the overnight hours and spread to areas further north across
the eastern half of Utah into Sunday. Activity will finally wane
late Sunday evening on through the overnight hours as the low
departs eastward.

Monday  is favored to be a drier day as a brief shortwave ridge
shifts through overhead. In addition to the stable conditions, this
will also allow temperatures to rebound back to near seasonable
normal.

Models then have some uncertainty with the exact pattern evolution
through much of the week. There is some agreement in another trough
brushing by the region, but differences in exactly how and when. For
now, the best agreement is in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame,
with best chance of precipitation noted across northern Utah to
southwest Wyoming. Thereafter models support something in the way of
a fairly dry zonal flow to building ridge. If the ridge scenario
becomes more favored, then would expect to see forecast temperatures
also nudge upwards.


&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...Showers with an occasional rumble of thunder (15% chance or
less) will continue developing across much of northern UT over the
next few hours. These are forecast to last until midnight, resulting
in some uncertainty regarding wind direction at the KSLC terminal.
While prevailing S winds are forecast ahead of a cold front through
03z, occasional sloshing of the winds over the Great Salt Lake may
produce brief northwest winds from 21-02z. After 06z, VFR conditions
will develop as drier air moves into the airspace.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Showers will continue to
develop across much of northern UT and SW WY this afternoon,
generally tapering off areawide by 06z. Additionally, gusts to
around 20kts are possible out of the S across most northern UT sites
ahead of a cold front. After 06z, calm VFR conditions will prevail
across all sites.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Warthen
AVIATION...Worster

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