472
FXUS65 KSLC 201146
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
546 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1040 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026...


- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across most of Utah
  and southwest Wyoming continue through this upcoming week as
  monsoonal moisture remains in place.

- Flash flooding remains a concern across the region through at
  least Thursday, especially across southern Utah on Tuesday and
  northern Utah and southwest Wyoming on Wednesday.

- Hot daytime temperatures and warm overnight lows will lead to
  widespread Major HeatRisk across much of the Wasatch Front and
  northwest Utah on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1040 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026...
Showers are once again waning tonight across the
region outside of some lingering convection across southeast Utah
that should taper off just after midnight. A typical monsoonal
pattern remains in place, defined by a broad ridge overhead. The
ridge is expected to amplify overhead on Monday, with
southeasterly flow aloft increasing across the region as a result.
While scattered showers develop once again Monday afternoon as
monsoon moisture remains in place, coverage will be a bit more
isolated with stronger steering flow aloft. As such, the flash
flood risk is lower across the region tomorrow, though a Marginal
Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall across most of Utah and
southwest Wyoming still exists, given flash flooding remains a
threat if a strong cell develops over sensitive terrain.

The amplifying ridge on Monday will also yield a slight bump in
temperatures, with highs for northern Utah valleys breaking the
century mark once again. Given warm overnight lows Monday morning,
this will exacerbate heat impacts and raise the risk for heat
illnesses mainly across the Wasatch Front and Great Salt Lake
Desert.

The flash flood risk rises again Tuesday through Wednesday as the
ridge flattens in response to a trough moving into the Pacific
Northwest, bringing an additional surge of monsoonal moisture.
Main concern for Tuesday exists across southern Utah, while the
threat shifts across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming on
Wednesday as monsoonal moisture spreads northward. While moisture
lingers through the remainder of the week across the region, the
broad ridge begins to slide west through the latter half of the
week, introducing drier, more stable conditions which will limit
the potential for the daily convection chances to continue into
the weekend.



&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...Southeasterly winds will continue through the morning before
transitioning to northwesterly between 18-20z. Isolated
thunderstorms will begin to develop over the Wasatch after 19z, with
the highest chance of a couple of rogue storms moving over the
terminal between 21-01z (15-20% chance). These showers may be
capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds, potentially
including an earlier switch to southerly.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop across much of the area after 18-19z,
first develop across higher terrain. These storms may be capable of
producing heavy rain, gusty outflow winds, and brief VIS reductions.
While the strongest storms will likely diminish by 02z, showers may
continue into the overnight hours, particularly across southern
Utah.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 438 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026...
Monsoonal moisture remains in place resulting in
daily afternoon thunderstorm chances through at least Thursday
statewide. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are even
possible Monday night across southern Utah and Tuesday night
across much of the state. A secondary push of moisture late
Tuesday into Wednesday will act to further increase humidities
before a slow drying trend later in the week. These storms will
continue to be capable of producing heavy rain, with elevated
chances for wetting rain particularly across higher terrain. Later
in the week, this threat could turn into more of a strong outflow
wind threat, though this depends on how long the deep moisture is
able to hang on.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Heat Advisory from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for
     UTZ101>105.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Whitlam
AVIATION...Cunningham
FIRE WEATHER...Cunningham

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity