629
FXUS65 KSLC 020405
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1005 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure looks to bring quiet, warm, and dry conditions for
the foreseeable future.

- A weak system will traverse the Great Basin Monday bringing gusty
conditions and serving to moderate the warming trend.

- Another system may renew precipitation chances late-week, though
confidence is quite low at this time.


&&

.DISCUSSION... Broad westerly flow aloft looks to persist across the
Great Basin as mid-level ridging strengthens across the Southwest.
With much of UT sitting along the northern periphery of this ridge,
dry and mild conditions are expected to persist through the next
several days. On Monday, a weak system looks to move northeast
across the Great Basin and clip northern UT. This feature will
result in modest gusts developing in the afternoon statewide as well
as putting a halt to the warming trend, though temperatures will
generally run ~10F above seasonal normals across much of the state
through the forecast period.

Around the Friday-Saturday timeframe, there exists a 40-50% chance
of a pattern breakdown with some degree of troughing developing
across the western U.S., ushering in a return to active weather.
There is considerable uncertainty regarding this solution at this
time, primarily due to placement of the mid-level troughs which
would notably impact any precipitation development across the
forecast area. Additionally, given the active EPAC tropics, moisture
within long-range guidance remains somewhat unreliable at this time.
Regardless, there is high confidence with dry and mild conditions
persisting through nearly the entirety of this forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...

 KSLC...VFR conditions will persist at the KSLC terminal through the
forecast period. Dry and stable conditions with mostly clear skies
will continue. The terminal is currently experiencing light south to
southeasterly flow before becoming a more enhanced southerly flow
around 17Z due a weak boundary propagating across the area. Around
21Z, the flow will switch back to diurnally-driven northwesterly
winds.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist at
all TAFs sites through the forecast period. Dry and stable
conditions with diurnally-driven winds will prevail at all sites.
Some high clouds may move across the northern terminals due a weak
boundary propagating across northern Utah.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Strong high pressure will build over the state
into the weekend. This will bring increasingly dry conditions with
light winds and increasingly mild temperatures. A weak storm
system Monday is expected to curb the warming trend and bring a
very low chance of showers. High pressure will then rebuild
thereafter, keeping conditions dry and relative warm with
continued light winds.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Worster
AVIATION...Tekoe
FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity