282
FXUS65 KSLC 231036
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
336 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dense fog and low stratus continue to impact northern
and central Utah this morning. An upper level low will bring light
precipitation to southern Utah through this evening. A dry cold
front will cross the region Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning,
bringing cooler temperatures. A potential winter storm lurks next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Another day in the col, another day of stratus and
dense fog across portions of northern and central Utah. Early
morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates widespread
stratus has developed across the Skull and Tooele Valleys, the
Cache Valley, portions of eastern Box Elder County and from
Spanish Fork to Nephi or so. Dense fog has developed near water
sources, such as near Huntsville, near the Great Salt Lake, near
Utah Lake and through the Bear Lake River Valley into western
Uinta County WY. Dense fog advisories continue for Uinta County,
WY, northern and western Salt Lake County and Weber and Davis
Counties until 8 AM. Will need to monitoring extending the dense
fog advisories depending on whether fog begins to dissipate once
the sun starts coming up...or if it is more resilient.

Meanwhile, across southern Utah, an upper level low continues to
shift north and east across Arizona. This low will reach the 4
Corners area later today. Light precipitation is expected to
continue across southern Utah through early evening before ending
as the low shifts into the Central Plains.

In a marked shift from yesterday`s 00Z runs, ensemble members are
now favoring the next upper level trough to shift east-southeast
into the northern Plains, rather than dig through the central
Rockies. The associated dry cold front will still cross much of
Utah Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, but with weaker
cold air advection. This has resulted in the forecast for Tuesday
shifting 2-5 degrees or so warmer and removing much of the threat
of freezing conditions for lower Washington County and the towns
along the Virgin River corridor. Still looks like a window for
Washington County gap winds Tuesday morning and Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, though given the set up, wind gusts should
remain below 40 mph.

A transitory ridge will build into the region Wednesday into
Thursday.

A more significant winter storm lurks in the forecast period
Friday into next weekend. Around 50% of ensemble members bring a
deepening trough into the western United States Saturday into
Sunday with the remainder suggest other scenarios such as another
cut-off upper level low off the California Coast, or splitting
trough well to the west of Utah and thus weaker system crossing
the state. Looking at, for example, plumes of 24 hour
precipitation across the four ensemble member clusters shows both
a wide range of totals and a shift in timing/magnitude of the
trough.

One thing is consistent with all the ensemble clusters...very cold
700mb temperatures will shift into the region, with a tight mean
across the Salt Lake area (for example) of around -10C. This would
support all precipitation shifting to snow behind the cold front.
Assuming a 10:1 snow ratio (for ease), the mean snow accumulation
for the SLC Airport by Sunday night is around 2 inches. Looking at
the University of Utah`s Utah Snow Ensemble 12Z 11/22 run, the
25th to 75th snow total accumulation for Alta would be somewhere
around 8 to 18 inches. Good news for those who are hanging on for
a northern Utah snow storm...but with the timing/depth variance
across the major ensemble systems, we need to keep tight before
letting the excitement level too high. Keep checking the forecast
as the ensembles start to narrow in on a particular solution (or
solutions).

The cold temperatures look to continue beyond the day 8 period as
a cold, more continental airmass sets up across the Interior West.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...LIFR conditions with dense fog will prevail
through 15Z. Fog will lift some through the day, with conditions
getting into IFR and likely MVFR. Valley inversion conditions will
likely keep conditions out of VFR range much or all of the day.
Winds will be light, generally from the southeast through 18Z,
then from the northwest from 18-03Z. Conditions will lower from
VFR or MVFR to IFR or LIFR after 03Z with fog.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Localized low stratus and
dense fog throughout southwest Wyoming and northern Utah will be
capable of LIFR conditions, particularly at KEVW, KLGU, and KOGD.
Conditions will range from IFR to MVFR for those locations much of
the day, then drop into LIFR or IFR at night as low stratus and
fog set up. A storm system lifting near the Four Corners will
bring scattered to broken clouds in VFR range for southern Utah
with light rain that will taper off by 00Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for UTZ104-105-
     109.

WY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for WYZ021.

&&

$$

Kruse/Wilson

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