654
FXUS65 KSLC 251905
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
105 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Weak cold frontal passage across northern Utah Monday night
  will bring a little bit of valley rain and mountain snow in
  addition to a cool down.

- A more substantial storm arrives by the end of the week into the
  weekend with the potential for widespread precipitation that
  could increase the risk of flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An area of low pressure is centered across
northeastern Utah with light rain and snow showers along the
terrain of central and northern Utah. Snow levels have been
hovering around 9000 feet with accumulating snow on non-paved
surfaces observed at Wolf Creek Pass, although this snow has been
melting as the snow showers move out. Not expecting more than a
quick dusting under heavier showers at elevation. A few lightning
strikes are possible this afternoon as conditions de-stabilize
slightly, but most of this activity will remain in the form of
brief light showers across the terrain of central and northeastern
Utah.

This low will move out of the area tonight with shortwave ridging
moving into the region tomorrow that will help temperatures rise
back into the 60s across most valley locations and low 70s across
lower Washington county. These temperatures will trend lower by
5-8 degrees across northern Utah and SW Wyoming after the passage
of a shallow cold front Monday evening. Guidance has trended down
on QPF totals as hi-res guidance comes into frame. Most of the
hi-res guidance keeps all of the precipitation to our north, but
the NBM 50th percentile still has 0.1-0.2" of QPF near the Idaho
border with lesser amounts as you head down the Wasatch before
tapering off to nothing basically south of Utah County. A quick
dusting to an inch of snow will be possible with the frontal
passage as snow levels get down to 6000-7000 feet.

We will remain in a zonal flow with a broad trough across the PNW
that will keep conditions mostly dry with near normal
temperatures. Being on the periphery of this trough will keep the
door open for some grazing shortwaves. Guidance is starting to
pick up on one of these Tuesday night that could bring another
brief grazing of valley rain and mountain snow across northern
Utah/SW Wyoming, but this will be brief with limited precipitation
totals likely. The NBM 90th percentile gets as high as 0.5" with
this round of precipitation, but the 50th keeps totals <0.25".

A more substantial storm starts to emerge towards the end of the
week and into the weekend as the aforementioned broad trough
starts to shift further south and begins to pull in deep moisture
from the southern jet stream. The timing of this will be key to
when and where the heaviest precipitation sets up. Guidance seems
to have slowed down today with a bulk of the activity holding off
until the ladder half of the weekend as opposed to the first half
that was being advertised the past couple of days. 50% of the
ensemble members keeps this trough across the west for several
days. This will increase our risk of flash flooding, particularly
is the trough and heaviest moisture tap merge across the Great
Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...Winds will remain light and variable continuing to transition
to northwest around 5-7kts after 18-19Z. A stratus deck around 2500
feet to the east of the terminal may occasionally creep over the
field through 03Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Light showers across southern
and eastern Utah this morning will increase in coverage and continue
to shift towards the northeast as an area of low pressure pushes
across eastern Utah today. Showers will remain near to east of
roughly KCDC-KPVU, with isolated thunderstorms developing this
afternoon. MVFR conditions will occur periodically near any showers.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mahan
AVIATION...Kruse

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity