983
FXUS65 KSLC 292103
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
303 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A warming and drying trend is expected moving into early
next week, with precipitation chances becoming much more limited.
Some models support a modest return of moisture then around the
middle of the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...At least one more slightly
active day today given the combination of some lingering
monsoonal moisture in addition to the now departing remnants of
Juliette. Showers associated with the latter have more or less
exited southern Utah, with the lingering moisture elsewhere
resulting in the development of isolated to scattered diurnal
convection. So far based on radar trends it would appear a
relative lack of shear is precluding much in the way of
organization to storms, with activity largely pulsey in nature.
Mesoanalysis shows around 700-1000 J/kg DCAPE across much of
western Utah though, so wouldn`t be entirely surprised to get a
couple modestly strong wind gusts to around 40-50 mph or so out
of any of the stronger cores that flare up. With clearing ongoing
across southern Utah given the departing tropical remnants, will
also have to keep an eye on any convection that pops up over a
rain sensitive basin. Following the cessation of daytime heating,
will see coverage and intensity of lingering showers and
thunderstorms trend downward, giving way to a quieter night with
fairly seasonable temperatures.

Moving into Saturday, deep layer flow shifts more west to
northwesterly as ridging builds over much of the Great Basin. This
will promote a continued drying trend with models in turn
suggesting any convection will be further isolated, largely
confined to the high terrain, and generally a bit weaker.
Otherwise, the pattern will yield the start of a gradual warming
trend, though current forecast highs remain generally near to
slightly below climatological normal for late August. Activity
once again wanes through the evening hours, giving way to another
quiet night in regards to anticipated weather.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday), Issued 418 AM MDT...
The long-term period will be
much drier and quieter than this past week as high pressure
continues to build. With the ridge axis overhead, expect light winds
and largely quiescent weather, with temperatures warming an
additional few degrees by Sunday. Despite this drier air mass, a few
isolated showers are possible Sunday and Monday afternoons across
the southern mountains, owing to PWATs still around 80-90% of normal
combined with solar insolation.

Models continue to highlight the potential for a marginal increase
in moisture by mid-week, though uncertainty in the spatial extent
and magnitude still remains. The 25th percentile of ensemble members
actually still suggests little to no increase in moisture (except
maybe in St. George)...with the 75th percentile favoring an increase
across mainly southern Utah. At this time, the main threat appears
to be dry microbursts given overall limited moisture, though we`ll
need to monitor the chances for isolated flash flooding if the
wetter solution pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...The SLC terminal see VFR conditions through the
evening with some scattered clouds. Northwest winds are expected to
return to the southeast between 03Z and 05Z. There is 30 percent
chance of a thunderstorm impacting the terminal through the early
evening. If this occurs the main threats will be lightning as well
as gusty and erratic winds.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist
for the entire airspace through the period. Widely scattered
convection will impact portions of the northern and central airspace
through the early evening, with gusty winds possible with any storms
that develop. Away from storms, winds will be light and diurnally
driven across the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms associated with lingering moisture
will decrease in coverage and intensity through Thursday evening.
Deep layer flow will trend more west to northwesterly as a ridge
of high pressure strengthens over the Great Basin, resulting in
more stable conditions in addition to a drying and warming trend
into early next week as this ridge slowly translates through
overhead. Still, a few isolated showers cannot be entirely ruled
out along Utah`s high terrain during the daytime, though with
minimal chances of wetting rains. By late weekend into early next
week low elevation afternoon humidity values will largely fall
into the teens. Around Tuesday or Wednesday models suggest the
ridge may shift sufficiently to allow a bit of low end moisture to
return, resulting in a corresponding uptick in precipitation
chances. That said, wetting rain chances still look fairly limited
at this time.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...Cunningham
AVIATION...Traphagan
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen

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http://weather.gov/saltlakecity