587
FXUS65 KSLC 140739
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
139 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A flood watch for flash flooding is now in effect through Friday
  evening for portions of central and southern Utah. Flash
  flooding is most likely in normally dry washes, slot canyons,
  slick rock areas, and recent burn scars.

- Much drier conditions will build into the region this weekend
  into early next week. Elevated to locally critical fire weather
  conditions will occur across portions of central and southern
  Utah Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1050 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026...
The forecast area remains sandwiched between an area of high
pressure to the east and a broad area of low pressure off to the
west, with shortwave energy continuing to lift through the region
this evening. The pairing of the shortwave energy and the
monsoonal moisture on the western periphery of the ridge continues
to support shower and thunderstorm activity across the region,
with a rather widespread area of stratiform rain across a portion
of northern Utah. Isolated thunderstorms continue to build in
west-central and southwest Utah this evening, with isolated to
widely scattered storms expected to continue into the early
morning hours across this same region. As such, the threat for
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will remain somewhat elevated
through early Friday morning, with primary concern areas being the
Cottonwood burn scar and Widemouth 2 scar.

Moisture remains in place through the day tomorrow with another
subtle shortwave trough lifting through the region which will help
to bring another round of showers and thunderstorms across the
forecast area. As has been the case for the past several days, the
increase in atmospheric moisture and instability in place across
the region will bring the potential for heavy rainfall and flash
flooding with developing thunderstorms if they end up in the wrong
place (i.e. burn scars, slot canyons, dry washes, and poor
drainage / urbanized areas).

Increasing subsidence in the wake of this shortwave will spread
over the region over the weekend, helping to decrease the overall
coverage of showers and thunderstorms areawide. That said,
moisture will still remain in place and allow for at least
isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop over the high
terrain features, particularly in southern Utah and in the Uinta
Mountains. Coverage of precipitation will decrease further into
Monday and Tuesday as mid-level moisture wanes, however, we`ll
increase chances once again on Wednesday as the northern stream
becomes more active.

&&

.AVIATION, Issued 1050 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026...
KSLC... Showery conditions persist through around 06z, becoming
dry thereafter. Winds remain generally light out of the southeast
overnight, transitioning to the northwest after around 20z.
Afternoon convection will be more isolated across northern Utah on
Friday, with a 15% chance for a thunderstorm to impact the
terminal with gusty and variable winds between 20-24z. Conditions
remain VFR through the TAF period with a persistent mid and high
level cloud deck.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Convective activity will wane
across the entire airspace after 08-09z. VFR conditions prevail for
all regional terminals through the TAF period, with a persistent mid
to high level cloud deck across the region. Convective activity is
expected to develop once again, with widely scattered coverage
across central and southern Utah starting around 19z. Storms will be
capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds and brief heavy
rainfall.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...One more day of widespread showers and
thunderstorms is expected as this monsoon surge comes to an end.
High pressure will shift eastward, with Utah transitioning to a
dry southwest to west flow through at least midweek. Minimum
humidities will fall to critical levels for most valley locations
Sunday into Monday.

A system crossing to the north may bump winds enough on Tuesday
and Wednesday to bring elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions to portions of central and southern Utah each afternoon
and evening.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch through this evening for UTZ116-117-122>129.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Webber/Whitlam

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity