Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
151 FXUS65 KSLC 172302 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 402 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Another closed low moves into the desert southwest tonight, bringing widespread valley rain and mountain snow to southern Utah. Unsettled conditions will persist across southern Utah through Thursday with only low chances for precipitation across the north. Another cutoff low will push into the southwest this weekend, but it`s current track is far enough south that even southern Utah will struggle to see much in the way of precipitation. && .DISCUSSION...Key Points: - Valley rain and mountain snow move back into southern Utah overnight through Wednesday. - Conditions remain showery across southern Utah, potentially spreading further north, through Friday. - This weekend is trending drier as another cutoff low tracks even further south with most precipitation remaining in Arizona. Another closed low is currently centered over the Bay Area of Northern California. Radar shows widespread valley rain and mountain snow across California. This low will continue to slide southeast into the Mojave Desert this evening. Upstream of this low, a transient ridge is keeping conditions dry across all of Utah and SW Wyoming. This begins to change this evening across southern Utah as this low shifts into the southwest. CAMs are suggesting that some high elevation precipitation could develop as early as midnight tonight across southern Utah, but the more widespread precipitation across the south likely holds off until mid morning on Tuesday. H7 temperatures begin around -2C, which would keep snowlevels high above 8,000 feet. A moist southerly flow will persist throughout the day on Tuesday as several waves of precipitation move through. Given that the heaviest precipitation is expected to fall during the day on Tuesday, in addition to near 10:1 snow ratios, snow totals will be dense and largely rate driven. Mid and upper level moisture decreases slightly late Tuesday into Wednesday as widespread precipitation transitions to more scattered precipitation that will largely tied to orographics. Snowlevels due fall closer to 7,000 feet during this window as H7 temperatures cool a couple more degrees. All in all, QPF totals for this Tuesday/Wednesday time period for the valleys are 0.25-0.75" (mainly along and south of Cedar City) with mountains seeing 0.75"-2.00". Snow totals across the highest terrain of the Pine Valleys, Brian Head, and Boulder mountain will be up to 12"+ with a sharp gradient as you go down in elevation. As the low shifts to the east on Thursday southeasterly flow will help keep orographics going across most of Utah terrain that is favored in southeasterly flow. Expect showery conditions to continue across the terrain through Thursday evening. Another closed low will take an even further south track across southern Arizona/northern Mexico this weekend. Given guidance has trended further south with this storm mostly dry conditions are the most likely (80% chance) scenario for all of Utah through the weekend. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions prevail at the terminal through the TAF period. Increasing mid-high level cloud coverage is expected into Tuesday, though conditions are expected to remain dry overall. Gusty southerly winds persist through this afternoon, then become more southeasterly and taper around 23-00z. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions prevail for most regional terminals, except KEVW where MVFR CIGS linger this afternoon. These low clouds are expected to scour out overnight, with mid-high level cloud coverage increasing across the airspace. Widespread valley rain and mountain snow overspread southwest Utah late tonight, which is expected to bring mountain obscuration and potential for MVFR (potentially IFR at times) conditions into Tuesday for southwest Utah terminals. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Wednesday for UTZ125. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Mahan AVIATION...Whitlam For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity