Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
130 FXUS65 KSLC 301018 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 418 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A warming and drying trend is expected over the weekend alongside mostly sunny skies. Warming and drying will persist through Tuesday before a gradual increase in moisture works back into the region midweek forward, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Monday)...Virtually no clouds are visible from satellite this morning across the CWA as an area of high pressure reestablishes across the Great Basin region. Today, high temperatures will continue to warm under the influence of the high alongside notable drying across Utah and southwest Wyoming. Afternoon highs are expected to be a smidge below normal for this time of year across the region, with highs in lower Washington County falling closest to near normal. The slightest touch of moisture will remain in place in the lower levels of the atmosphere, so a few afternoon buildups over the highest terrain features across Utah may develop into a light rain shower, however, no significant impacts from heavy rain or strong thunderstorms are expected as the environment truly is not supportive. Expect another few degrees of warming across the area as we head through Sunday, bringing high temperatures back to right around normal. For the heat enthusiasts in lower Washington County, highs will return to around the triple digit mark. Otherwise, anticipate generally light winds and mostly clear skies through the weekend for the valleys, and partly cloudy skies during the afternoon hours for the higher elevations across Utah. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Monday)...Largely quiescent conditions will be in place across the forecast area to start the long-term period on Monday, with highs near normal as strong high pressure resides over the region. While the synoptic pattern will be mostly unchanged through the week, a shortwave passing well to our west may help draw moisture into southwestern Utah as early as Tuesday, resulting in isolated to scattered thunderstorms capable of producing gusty outflow winds. Model guidance is still struggling with the spatial extent of this modest surge of moisture, with the most likely scenario being a slow increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms into eastern and central Utah through the week. Deterministic solutions suggest PWATs reach around 100-120% of normal by Wednesday across roughly the southwestern quarter of Utah, with potentially more moisture arriving as we head into the weekend. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Light, southeasterly winds will persist through the morning, transitioning to northwesterly around 17-18z. VFR conditions will prevail with clearing skies aside from a few cumulus buildups on nearby higher terrain. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Winds will be largely light and terrain-driven through the day, though may favor a northerly direction during the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail with clearing skies aside from cumulus buildups across higher terrain. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure building over the Great Basin region will aid in a warming and drying trend through early next week. Throughout this warming trend, daily high temperatures are expected to warm back to slightly above normal levels by early next week. Until then, near to slightly below-normal temperatures will remain in place through the weekend. A stout decrease in afternoon humidity is expected to spread across Utah under the influence of the ridge of high pressure, with afternoon minimum values dropping back into the 15 to 25 percent range by Saturday afternoon and 10 to 20 percent by Sunday. Afternoon minimum humidity of 10 to 20 percent is expected to persist through at least Tuesday, with a gradual increase expected through the remainder of the week. Overnight recovery, however, is expected to be fair to good across a majority of Utah with the exception of the lowest elevations across southern Utah (i.e. lower Washington Co., Glen Canyon NRA) and thermal belts west of the I-15 corridor (25 to 30 percent recovery expected). Mid-week forward anticipate chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms to work back into the daily forecast as moisture gradually increases. As we head into next weekend, shower and thunderstorm chances will spread farther north while chances for wetting rains will also see a notable increase as overall moisture continues to increase. Outside of any outflow winds, expect winds to be generally light and terrain driven each day. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Webber LONG TERM...Cunningham AVIATION...Cunningham FIRE WEATHER...Webber For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity