488
FXUS65 KSLC 250016
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
616 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1201 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026...


- Monsoonal moisture will remain in place over Utah and southwest
  Wyoming today, bringing the potential of showers and
  thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain capable of causing
  flash flooding.

- Somewhat drier air will move into the area over the weekend,
  decreasing the threat of showers and thunderstorms. However,
  moisture is expected to increase again starting Tuesday.

- Hot temperatures as high as the lower 100s will develop for the
  valleys of northwest Utah as well as the Uinta Basin this
  afternoon, with these hot temperatures persisting through
  Monday. Overnight lows will remain elevated, limiting the
  potential for overnight relief from the heat.


&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1201 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026...
High pressure is centered over the Four Corners this
morning, putting Utah and southwest Wyoming in a light but
prevailing southwesterly flow aloft. Monsoonal moisture remains in
place, with satellite derived PWs showing values in the 0.7 to 1.0
inch range over northern and central portions of the area, with
PWs in the 1.0 to 1.2 inch range over far southern Utah. These
highest PW values were primarily confined to areas near the
Utah/Idaho border overnight, but have been spreading northward a
bit during the day. Showers and thunderstorms are starting to
develop over the higher terrain of southern Utah this time, with
this area being the primary focus for convection during the
afternoon. Anticipating the development of scattered convection to
spread northward during the remainder of the afternoon and into
the evening. With light flow, movement off the terrain will be
generally limited, but any storms that develop over prone areas
will move little, keeping a threat of flash flooding in place.

There is high confidence that the ridge axis will shift east over
the weekend with a Pacific Northwest trough moving over the top of
it, bringing a more zonal flow over Utah and southwest Wyoming as
the ridge flattens. This will act to bring a gradual drying trend
to the area, decreasing coverage of convection each afternoon and
evening through the weekend. By late Monday, the ridge axis is
expected to reamplify as the wave moves east of the ridge,
bringing a return to a more southerly flow, allowing moisture to
increase once again.

With a strong ridge in place, temperatures are expected to be
unseasonably hot, particularly for the valleys of northwest Utah,
including the Wasatch Front, as well as the Uinta Basin. Maxes are
expected to rise as high as the lower 100s Friday through Monday,
with the monsoon moisture keeping overnight lows elevated. For
large portions of northwest Utah, lows are expected to stay in the
mid to upper 70s, providing little relief from the heat overnight.
Because of the anticipated increased risk of heat related illness
in this pattern, have replaced the going Extreme Heat Watch with a
Heat Advisory for the Wasatch Front and Cache Valley beginning
today, and added the remainder of northwest Utah as well as the
Uinta Basin. Will need to consider additional heat headlines
beginning Saturday for southeast Utah, with the shift in the ridge
bringing hotter temperatures to that area. The return of moisture
by Tuesday is expected to moderate temperatures some, though they
will remain around 5F above normal for northern portions of the
area.



&&

.AVIATION...
KSLC...Mostly VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal
through the TAF period. There will continue to be a potential or
showers and thunderstorms (30-40% chance) this evening through
around 05z. Variable and gusty winds can be expected near these
thunderstorms, otherwise winds will remain mostly south to southeast
through the night. Brief MVFR conditions are possible underneath a
stronger storm. A 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms can be
expected again tomorrow afternoon.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Mostly VFR conditions will
persist through the TAF period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will gradually decrease from south to north through this evening.
Erratic and gusty winds can be expected near showers and
thunderstorms, otherwise winds will become more diurnally driven by
late tonight. Brief MVFR conditions are possible under some of the
stronger storms. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will redevelop tomorrow afternoon, mainly near the mountains, in
northwest Utah, and in southwest Wyoming.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 129 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again
develop this afternoon, with the best coverage over the higher
terrain of southern Utah this afternoon into the early evening.
Any storms that develop will be capable of producing gusty winds
and lightning as well as the potential for wetting rains. Other
than thunderstorm winds, high pressure will bring generally light
and terrain driven winds. Drier air moving into the area over the
weekend will cause a gradual decrease in coverage of showers and
thunderstorms through Monday. With this drier air moving in,
portions of western and southern Utah are expected to see minimum
relative humidity values approach critical levels on Saturday,
with the potential becoming more widespread Sunday into Monday.
Moisture is expected to start to increase again over the area
beginning Tuesday.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Monday night for UTZ101>107-114.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Traphagan
AVIATION...Cheng
FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan

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