611
FXUS65 KSLC 301016
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
416 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1023 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026...


- Conditions across the entire forecast area dry out considerably
starting Thursday.

- Dangerous heat looks to develop across the entire forecast area
this weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure settles in bringing
the potential for an increase in heat related illness.

- An active pattern for wind looks to develop by Sunday/Monday with
strong winds out of the southwest raising chances for critical fire
weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1023 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026...
 Convection is currently moving further east toward WY
and CO, leaving much of the state dry. This drying trend is forecast
to continue across the entire area for the foreseeable future as a
strong ridge of high pressure begins to establish itself over
southern NV into much of AZ resulting in persistent warm and dry
westerly flow.

As geopotential heights continue to increase starting Friday, we will
see at or just near triple digit temperatures across much of our
western UT valley locations with most areas along the Wasatch front
reaching into the low 100s. Additionally, there is a 20-30% chance
St. George breaks 110F tomorrow afternoon. This is unfortunately not
all the heat we`ll see, as Saturday and Sunday are expected to
become disgustingly hot across the entire forecast area. For example,
St. George`s probabilities of breaking 110F on Saturday increase
substantially to around 70-80% with SLC`s chances of breaking 105F
ranging from 20-40%. Additionally, overnight lows are expected to
offer little relief with most valley locations only seeing
temperatures getting down to the mid-70s, with St. Georges low`s
remaining in the low 80s. As a result, HeatRisk increases
substantially with much of the forecast areas lower lying population
centers well situated within at least "major" HeatRisk (3/4) by
Saturday.

Additionally, with this pattern settling in warm and dry west-
northwest flow, this sets us up for an active fire weather storm
track going forward. Enhanced gusts out of the southwest look to
develop by Sunday/Monday resulting in elevated to near-critical fire
weather conditions developing across southwestern, west-central, and
northwest UT both afternoons. While the recent monsoonal rainfall
has certainly helped extinguish fire weather concerns across much of
southern UT, this airmass is expected to be rather dry and bears
watching.



&&

.AVIATION, Issued 1052 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026...

KSLC...Gusty winds will continue tapering off through the next few
hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist with diurnal wind
shifts expected.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...A few scattered thunderstorms
are currently moving across northern UT with a low chance of
impacting KLGU. Otherwise, VFR conditions with diurnal wind shifts
will prevail across all terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will shift westward today, centering
itself over Arizona Friday and through the weekend. This pattern
will lead to a signficiant drying trend along with hot
temperatures, while winds will remain generally light and terrain-
driven. For today, as the airmass transitions to said pattern,
showers and thunderstorms will be quite isolated, but locally
scattered over/near the Uintas. Friday through the weekend, any
showers will be very isolated and weak.

Expect afternoon relative humidities to fall into the single
digits in many valleys by Friday, and in most valleys along with
10-15% in most mountains by the weekend, with increasingly poor
overnight recoveries. Temperatures in the triple digits can be
expected in most valleys during this time. A brief and small
respite from the temperatures can be expected on Monday as a weak
but dry cold front moves into northern Utah. However, this will
also bring increased winds which will increase the threat of
critical fire weather conditions. Temperatures will then rebound
midweek, brining triple digit highs to the area once again.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ101-
     115-116-120>122.

     Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for UTZ102-104>106-114.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon Friday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for
     UTZ123-124-128>131.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Worster
AVIATION...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Cheng

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity