066
FXUS65 KSLC 010334
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
934 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...


- High pressure is favored to persist, bringing correspondingly
  dry and mild conditions through the first week of October.

- There is a low (~20-30%) chance of a weak passing system early
  next week to bring isolated showers to portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Evening water vapor analysis shows a mid to upper
level low ejecting from New Mexico into the south/central Plains.
Moisture wrapping around this system has brought some cloud cover
over portions of east to southeast Utah, but this is continuing
to scour out of the area. With clearing skies, seasonably cool
weather is expected overnight into Thursday morning.

Ridging will gradually build into the Intermountain West
progressing into the weekend. This will result in 700 mb
temperatures across the area rising to around 10-12 C by the
weekend, above the climatological 90th percentile. Daily highs and
lows will in turn increase to well above normal with afternoon
highs generally running about 5-15 F above typical for early
October. While models support a trough digging from the PacNW into
the central/northern Plains over the weekend, it is favored that
the strong ridge centered nearby will keep any impacts from this
system east of the region. As such, dry conditions are favored
into the weekend.

Models do support a weakening trough moving inland off the
Pacific coast early next week, but are mixed on any potential
impacts. This is largely due to differences in forecast moisture
amounts, exact track, and overall synoptic forcing. At this time,
20-30% of available ensemble members carry sufficient ingredients
to bring isolated showers to portions of the area, primarily
higher terrain and southern Utah. Even then, there is limited
indication of much of a thermal element to this as the potential
system becomes more cutoff or washed out, and above normal
temperatures are likely to continue.

Aside from the potential early week system, some flavor of
ridging is expected to return or persist into the middle of the
upcoming week. As further supported by the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day
temperatures/precipitation outlooks, the pattern is favored to
maintain milder and drier than normal conditions.

&&

.AVIATION, Issued 512 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026...

KSLC...Light northwesterly winds will increase through the day
before switching back to the south around 03-05Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Rain showers will impact
terminals across southeastern Utah, roughly south and east of a
line from KNB to HVE. Occasional MVFR conditions will occur in
these rain showers through the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1212 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026...
High pressure will build into the area through the weekend. This
will lead to drier and more stable conditions along with a gradual
warming trend. Some enhanced northerly winds may remain in place
tonight but generally light and terrain-driven winds are expected
thereafter. A weakening storm system looks to cross the area on
Monday. Isolated to scattered showers with localized wetting rain
will be possible with this storm. Otherwise, high pressure is
expected to build back into the area once again by the middle of
next week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Warthen
AVIATION...Kruse
FIRE WEATHER...Cheng

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity