528
FXUS65 KSLC 071222
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
621 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 947 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026...


- Precipitation chances diminish overnight into Monday morning as
  moisture decreases.

- A cold front will advance to around central Utah overnight into
  Monday, with cooler temperatures pushing into areas further
  north behind the front.

- Drier conditions are favored for much of the upcoming work week,
  with temperatures generally increasing day to day.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 947 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026...
Synoptic pattern evolving more or less as expected. A
broad upper low is extended southward from the PacNW, with an
associated shortwave impulse pivoting through nearby and a cold
frontal boundary advancing into northwest Utah. A stream of
tropical moisture has continued to advect into the region within
the enhanced southwest flow, resulting in a somewhat narrow band
of persistent shower activity. A lack of destabilization has
largely kept these showers shallow and more stratiform in nature,
and observed rain rates have struggled to push much past 0.10" per
hour or so, even with PWATs around 0.8" to 1.2". A few slightly
more organized cells managed to develop across northwest Utah and
produce some instances of stronger wind gusts, but otherwise this
system has not produced much in the way of overly impactful
weather locally.

The cold front will continue to progress southeastward through
the night, with lingering moisture helping to maintain some
scattered shower activity across northern Utah into Monday
morning. The more marked moisture plume will shift eastward
though, allowing precipitation to largely diminish elsewhere
across the forecast area through the overnight hours. The front
will progress into central Utah before eventually stalling and
beginning to wash out, but cooler temperatures will move in behind
it. Across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, afternoon highs
will run around 5-10 degrees below climatological normal. Across
southern Utah temperatures will increase in comparison to Sunday
given more limited cloud cover, but even then highs will be near
to a little below normal.

Moving through the work week, models favor a largely dry and
zonal flow being maintained overhead. Temperatures will gradually
moderate back upwards in turn. In comparison to prior forecast
cycles, ensembles seem to be trending away from much of a moisture
return, and as such precipitation chances remain low. There is
some semblance of another northern stream system digging into the
area around the weekend, but minimal consensus on the
depth/strength of any such feature, or what sort of moisture would
be available to interact with. Overall confidence in specifics
remains low though, so will need to continue to monitor trends.



&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...Prevailing northwesterly winds are expected in wake of a dry
frontal passage which occurred at 12z. Mid level clouds this morning
will thin as the day progresses, with VFR conditions holding through
the valid TAF period.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...A frontal boundary over
northern Utah this morning will gradually progress into central Utah
today. South of this boundary gusty southwesterly winds are once
again expected...namely across southern portions of the airspace.
VFR conditions are anticipated for all areas throughout the valid
TAF period as drier air overspreads the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 320 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026...
A boundary will continue to cross the district from
northwest to southeast today shifting the moisture from yesterday
east of the area. In wake of this boundary, temperatures across
northern and central portions are expected to drop to some 5-10
degrees below seasonal norms today. Moving forward, near-westerly
flow aloft will maintain dry and seasonal conditions through the
late week period as deeper moisture will remain pinned south of
the district. A net influx of monsoonal moisture remains possible
late week through the weekend.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Warthen
AVIATION...Merrill
FIRE WEATHER...Merrill

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