441
FXUS65 KSLC 072105
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
305 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat will continue through Saturday across southern
  Utah, through Sunday for the remainder of the Utah. Those
  without access to cooling or proper hydration will be most at
  risk for heat- related illness. With temperatures remaining
  elevated overnight, there will be little recovery. Heat stress
  is cumulative.

- Critical fire weather conditions will continue across southern
  Utah today as widely scattered thunderstorms develop after a
  long duration period of very dry, very hot conditions. This
  threat will spread north and east this weekend into Monday.

- A marginal risk of excessive rainfall has been outlooked across
  southern Utah Friday and Saturday, shifting north and east
  Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A quick discussion today as active weather
continues. Looking at the latest mesoanalysis, SBCAPE continues to
climb to near 1000-1500 J/kg. With little deep layer shear, storm
motions have been very slow. The biggest question in regard to any
flash flood threat will be whether storms are able to sustain
shear/cold pool balance and continue to shift with outflow
boundaries. This will be something to monitor over the next few
hours.

Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories continue for many
locations. For southern Utah, these continue through Saturday, the
remainder of Utah through Sunday. No changes were made with this
package to the heat headlines.

Looking at the latest runs of the HRRR, CAMs may be trending
toward more convective coverage Saturday. SBCAPE values will be
slightly less than today, with little to no deep layer shear. Cold
pool/shear balance will be a question again.

This monsoon surge will continue to spread north and east Sunday
into Monday and continue through much of the week. Storm motions
and shear will increase to an extent Sunday into early next week,
which may allow for more intense rainfall rates.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Winds will be light and variable over the
next hour or so, becoming stronger out of the northwest between
1830-1900z. A transition back to southeasterly drainage winds is
expected around 03-04z, however winds may also be light and
variable during the overnight hours. VFR conditions will prevail
most of the time, though wildfire smoke may cause slantwise VIS
reductions briefly into MVFR, particularly around sunrise/sunset.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop after 18-19z across primarily
southwestern Utah south of KDTA and west of KBCE, though some storms
may reach northward into Utah County, potentially impacting KPVU
this afternoon. Storms will be capable of producing gusty outflow
winds up to 40kts (up to 30-35kts further north). Otherwise, winds
will follow typical diurnal trends. VFR conditions will largely
prevail, however wildfire smoke may cause slantwise VIS reductions
briefly into MVFR (or lower very close to local wildfires).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to
develop across southwestern Utah this afternoon and evening.
Given very dry and very hot antecedent conditions, issued a Red
Flag Warning for zones 495 and 496 for this afternoon and evening.
Convective coverage will trend lower for Saturday...before
increasing once again on Sunday across much of the higher terrain
of Utah. This trend will continue into the next workweek.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight MDT Sunday night for UTZ101-
     102-104-105-115-120-121.

     Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Sunday night for UTZ103-106-107-
     114-116.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ118-119-122-126-127.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ495-496.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ123-124-
     128>131.

WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ277.

&&

$$

Kruse/Cunningham

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