869
FXUS65 KSLC 041725
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1125 AM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing winds this afternoon brings the threat for elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions to Southern UT where fuels
are critically dry.

- As temperatures climb through Saturday, the threat for heat-
related illness increases for those who are sensitive to heat,
without adequate cooling or hydration, or have chronic health
conditions.

- More widespread critical fire weather conditions develop across
central and southern UT Saturday, lasting through at least Wednesday
as widespread wind gusts look to develop statewide.


&&

.DISCUSSION... Today, modest zonal flow will persist across the
Great Basin resulting in generally diurnal winds across much of UT.
A weak mid-level shortwave will slowly traverse across southern UT
bringing localized gusts to 30kts across the area. With single digit
humidities in place, near-critical fire weather conditions may
develop locally across southern UT this afternoon.

Through the remainder of the week into the weekend, gradual height
rises amidst dry westerly flow is forecast to occur which will serve
to raise temperatures markedly. Heating is moderated somewhat across
northern UT tomorrow due to the aforementioned shortwave brushing by
slowly this evening. regardless, the warming trend is forecast to
continue through Saturday with temperatures ranging 10-15F above
average across just about the entirety of the forecast area.
Temperatures will continue to climb Friday and Saturday as a
deepening trough progresses toward the Great Basin bringing
prolonged southwesterly flow into the region. While these
temperatures continue to fall short of HeatRisk related headline
issuance across most valleys, please take precautions to keep
yourself and others safe such as staying hydrated, wearing light
colored and loose clothing, and limiting time in the direct
sunlight.

As we draw closer to the weekend, confidence regarding the fire
weather threat across central and southern UT continues to increase
as a deepening midlevel trough progresses toward the Great Basin. A
strengthening pressure gradient amidst strong mixing to around 5km
from the surface favors strong winds translating to the surface out
of the southwest. Chances for gusts greater than 30mph range from 50-
80% across most central and southern UT valleys on Saturday and 90%+
across southwest UT. Additionally, chances greater than 40mph are
generally 20-40% across most of southern and central UT with 60%+
across southwest UT. With poor overnight recoveries and widespread
single digit humidities Saturday afternoon, critical fire weather
conditions will exist across central and southern UT Saturday.

Regarding Sunday, there is at least some potential for isolated
scattered dry thunderstorms with attendant strong to severe
microbursts. Widespread PVA amidst height falls and inverted-V
soundings across northern UT may favor the development of these
storms across northern UT Sunday afternoon. Lightning is also
possible with this storms in the presence of some instability
aloft, potentially yielding a more localized fire weather threat
across northern UT Sunday afternoon.

On Sunday across southern and central UT, a frontal boundary will
slowly move east with time keeping the gusty wind threat more
confined to southeast UT. Critical fire weather conditions will
remain in place across central and southern UT, though winds are
expected to taper off with a midlevel trough lifting north of the
area displacing synoptic wind support from the region somewhat.
Despite this, confidence continues to exist regarding critical fire
weather conditions due to ample coverage of expected wind gusts
greater than 30mph and humidities in the single digits to low teens.

Monday and Tuesday, however, bring another interesting round of
critical fire weather conditions to the area as models hone in on
some stronger winds moving into the area. Additionally, the fire
weather threat looks to persist through at least Wednesday given
enhanced midlevel flow via persistent troughs across the western
U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions prevail through the period under
clear skies. Breezy northwesterly winds continue through roughly 03-
04z, becoming light out of the southeast thereafter. There is a 20%
chance for winds to shift more westerly after 06z, though light and
variable winds are more likely overnight.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...No impactful weather expected
across the airspace through the TAF period. Enhanced westerly winds
with gusts 20-25 kts are expected for southern and eastern Utah
terminals this afternoon; otherwise, winds generally follow diurnal
trends for all other regional terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A notably dry period remains in place with near-
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon locally across
southern UT given low humidities and pockets of gusts greater than
30mph.

A prolonged period of critical fire weather conditions looks to
develop this Saturday, lasting through at least Wednesday next
week as multiple systems move through the area. These systems are
expected to be dry and serve to bring multiple days with gusts
greater than 30mph in the afternoon hours amidst humidities in the
single digits to low teens. On Saturday, winds will see a notable
increase out of the southeast with high confidence in widespread
gusts greater than 30mph, and medium confidence in scattered gusts
greater than 40mph (~40% across central and southern UT). A cold
front will shift this threat more towards southeast UT on Sunday,
though gusty and dry conditions will remain in place across much
of central and southern UT. Monday and Tuesday stand out given
high confidence in widespread wind gusts in excess of 40mph across
central and southern UT with humidities in the single digits to
low teens.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Tuesday evening
     for UTZ484-489-492>498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Worster
AVIATION...Whitlam
FIRE WEATHER...Worster

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity