605
FXUS65 KSLC 232345
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
545 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1011 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026...


- Dry and stable, aside from some isolated diurnal convection
  across southern Utah, through the next several days with the
  next storm chance early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 110 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026...
Mostly dry and stable conditions will persist
through at least Saturday with seasonal temperatures. The one
exception to this being across portions of southern/southeastern
Utah where some elevated moisture will keep slight chances (<25%
chance) for diurnal thunderstorms through Friday.

Southwesterly flow starts to increase this weekend ahead of an
incoming trough. This trough will be our next chance for
widespread precipitation. Hurricane Polo in the eastern Pacific
will make a track to the north as it heads towards the Baja
California peninsula. This will help to supply the incoming trough
with tropical moisture, if the trough takes a certain trajectory.
Currently, 31% of ensemble members (an increase from the previous
forecast package of just 23%) bring the trough a bit further south
across the Great Basin late Sunday into Monday. This track would
be far enough south to really pull in that tropical moisture into
Utah resulting in widespread precipitation and potentially
flooding concerns. The other 69% of ensemble members keeps the
trough a bit further north resulting in a drier solution and most
of the precipitation going into eastern Utah and Colorado/New
Mexico.


&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...VFR conditions will continue through the valid TAF period.
Winds northwesterly flow will prevail through the evening before
switching to SE around 05Z. There is a 30% chance this wind shift
occurs as early as 03Z. Winds Thursday will return to northwesterly
as early as 16Z, however speeds will likely remain less than 6 kts
through early afternoon.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail at
all TAFs sites through the period with winds remaining light and
diurnally driven. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop
over the terrain of southern Utah Thursday afternoon, however the
chance of thunderstorms at KCDC and KSGU is less than 20%.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 110 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026...
Mostly dry and stable conditions have settled into
the region with warm days and cool nights that will help relative
humidity recover each night. Winds will also be light and diurnally
driven over the coming days. Moisture stays slightly elevated
across southeastern Utah which will keep slight chances for isolated
diurnal thunderstorms through the next several days. The next chance
for widespread precipitation will be late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mahan
AVIATION...Seaman
FIRE WEATHER...Mahan

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity