401
FXUS65 KSLC 290945
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
345 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1102 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026...


- Heavy rainfall ongoing across central and southern Utah will
gradually decrease in coverage overnight into early Tuesday morning.

- Showers and thunderstorms reinvigorate Tuesday afternoon across
southern Utah, where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive
rainfall remains in effect.

- Dry and mild conditions prevail Wednesday onward areawide as  high
pressure develops across the western US.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1102 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026...
Current radar depicts a wide swath of rainfall
ongoing across much of central and southern Utah generally east of
the I-15 corridor. As instability has waned this evening, embedded
convection has eased, taking on a more stratiform mode across most
of the area. Despite being more stratiform in nature, the deep
tropical moisture in place has allowed for rainfall rates to remain
quite efficient, which will exacerbate impacts in areas already
experiencing ongoing flooding. This swath of rainfall will decrease
in coverage as it continues to slowly track northeastward overnight
before tapering off over central Utah mid-Tuesday morning.

The associated upper-level low continues to dig further southeast
into Arizona on Tuesday, with far southern Utah remaining in a
favorable area for wrap-around moisture. Ample instability will
still exist on the northern periphery of the low, allowing widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Tuesday afternoon
across southern Utah. Heaviest rainfall is favored across the higher
terrain given easterly flow resulting in upslope enhancement, and
areas near the Arizona border. Given widespread heavy rainfall on
Monday has primed soils across the area, the flash flood risk will
remain elevated into Tuesday evening across much of southern Utah.

Northern and central Utah will remain under the influence of dry,
northerly flow on Tuesday, resulting in cooler temperatures and
limited chances for precipitation. This dry airmass will push into
southern Utah overnight into Wednesday morning, ushering out any
lingering precipitation. Models still show a strong consensus in
longwave ridging developing across the western US mid-to-late week,
indicative of a gradual warming and drying trend through this period.


&&

.AVIATION, Issued 1102 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026...


KSLC...VFR conditions will persist at the KSLC terminal through the
entire TAF period. Chances for some showers  at the terminal remain
low but possible  through 08z as a cold front pushes through the
area. The terminal is currently experiencing light east-southeast
winds, which is forecast to switch to elevated northwest winds
through much of tomorrow, with gusts up to 20kts.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail
across all terminals. Chances for showers remain possible across
most TAF sites through 8z, especially at the southern terminals. A
cold front will move through much of the area, resulting in VFR
conditions with enhanced NW flow across all northern TAF sites.
However, KCDC and KSGU will continue to see chances for showers and
thunderstorms carry in through much of tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Another round of heavy rain is expected this afternoon
and evening across the southern third of Utah. With very
saturated ground in this area, flash flooding will again be a
threat. As high pressure builds into the region, expect a warming
and drying trend through this weekend.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for UTZ117-120-121-
     125>127.

     Flood Watch through this evening for UTZ123-124-128>131.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Whitlam
AVIATION...Tekoe
FIRE WEATHER...Kruse

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity