077
FXUS65 KSLC 151014
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
414 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1054 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026...


- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across Utah and
  southwest Wyoming again on Wednesday. Storms will be capable of
  producing isolated flash flooding across central and southern
  Utah and gusty outflow winds across northern Utah.

- Monsoonal moisture continues to overspread the region through
  the week, with chances for locally heavy rainfall becoming more
  widespread with an elevated flash flood threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1054 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026...
A southerly flow aloft remains in place over Utah
this evening, with high pressure situated to the east. This
pattern has allowed monsoonal moisture to continue spreading into
the area. PWATs across most valleys with the exception of
northeast Utah are now over an inch, with up to around 1.3 inches
across far southwest Utah. Expect PWATS to continue to slowly
increase through the end of the week and into early next week
(widespread PWATs of 1.25 inches or more are expected by the end
of the week). With the low levels continuing to moisten, this
will bring an increased threat of heavy rain and flash flooding to
the area.

Not seeing much in the way of large-scale forcing in the models at
this time to aid widespread heavy rain or any real severe threat.
Given this and weak flow, expect most showers and thunderstorms
to develop over/near the higher terrain, then largely propagate
along cold pools and instability gradients. However, slow storm
motions along with potential training could serve as focus points
for localized areas of heavy rain.


&&

.AVIATION, Issued 1054 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026...
KSLC, Issued 1054 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026...
There is still a 60% chance of a W outflow
pushing in ~07Z. Wind will settle back S prior to sunrise, and is
expected shift back NW ~15-17Z. There is around a 10-20% chance of
convection at the terminal Wednesday afternoon, and once again
potential for some outflow related wind variability. A general mix
of VFR cloud cover above 12 kft is expected, with amounts varying
on area convection.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Some remnant outflows will
continue to settle out in the next few hours, with terminals
otherwise expected to settle back into a diurnally normal flow
pattern. For Wednesday afternoon, a similar convective pattern is
expected with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region,
and a corresponding potential for gusty erratic outflow winds. The
highest coverage area is roughly along and east of Utah`s high
terrain and portions of southwest Utah through the West Desert. That
said, outflows may impact other terminals further away from
convection. VFR cloud cover generally above 10 kft is expected,
though brief periods of reduced CIGS/VIS possible in convection.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoonal moisture remains solidly in place today, favoring
another round of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
primarily across the eastern half of Utah. Any showers or
thunderstorms will develop initially over the high terrain,
drifting into adjacent valley areas through the afternoon.
Coverage of these storms will be greatest for areas east of the
I-15 corridor, with medium to high chances (30 to 80 percent) for
showers or storms to produce a wetting rain. The highest
likelihood for wetting rains exists in the southern mountains and
the Uinta Mountains, with lower probability in the central
mountains and southern/ central Wasatch. For Utah`s West Desert
region, chances for shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
to be around 10 percent or less. In addition to the storm
activity, increased moisture will help to bring higher afternoon
humidity for much of the region, with fair to excellent overnight
recoveries expected. Moisture remains in place through the week,
bringing daily shower and thunderstorm activity over the higher
terrain across the state.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cheng
AVIATION...Warthen
FIRE WEATHER...Webber

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity